The severe flooding in northern Thailand has sparked fears over the potential for similar damage in the central plains, the heart of the nation's economy, as experts warn of the possibility of further floods over the next 60 days.
Forecasts suggest Thailand will experience more torrential rain and storms between September and October, with a greater risk of "rain bombs" falling on certain areas, according to climate hazard specialist Seree Supratid, who is also chairman of the executive committee at FutureTales Lab, a research centre on future planning under property developer Magnolia Quality Development Corporation.
Rain bombs, described as a consequence of climate change, are heavy downpours that take place over a short period of time. Areas of Trat and Phuket are among the latest provinces affected by this weather event, he said.
The risk of flooding prompted authorities to implement measures to protect factories, especially those based in low-lying areas, causing business leaders to urge the government to develop proper water management strategies, even though some feel the present inundation is under control.
PROTECTING PRODUCTION
The Industrial Estate Authority of Thailand (IEAT) is concerned by floods in the North, but it believes industrial estate operators have preventive measures in place to prevent flood damage.
Operators remember the great flood of 2011, which ravaged vast areas of provinces lying along the Chao Phraya River, inundating farmland, homes and factories.
"We are worried about the risk, but confident flood walls and other measures should be ready to protect our industrial estates against a new round of floods," said Veeris Ammarapala, governor of the IEAT.
The authority operates 68 industrial estates in 16 provinces countrywide and a deep-sea port at Map Ta Phut in Rayong.
IEAT officials must verify the readiness of all preventive measures to ensure their effectiveness in safeguarding factories, he said.
"Our alert level on a scale of 1 to 10 stands between 2 and 3. This means the risk is currently low," said Mr Veeris.
Special attention will be given to industrial estates located in Ayutthaya, Bangkok and the capital's neighbouring provinces because some of these were severely flooded in 2011, he said.
Officials also need to bolster flood prevention in the Bhakasa and Bangpoo industrial estates as the Chao Phraya River runs through Samut Prakan province. Bhakasa Industrial Estate is located within a 649-rai plot of land, while Bangpoo Industrial Estate is based within a 5,039-rai plot.
Mr Veeris said the IEAT is working with industrial estate operators and port authorities, who have been told to report to the IEAT's environmental quality and safety centre should an emergency occur.
He said he would visit industrial estates to see whether they are prone to inundation and attend an online meeting to discuss flood response operations during his inspection of an industrial estate in Ayutthaya.
"This is aimed at boosting confidence about preventing flooding," said Mr Veeris.
The IEAT allayed fears of possible flooding at Phichit Industrial Estate, though it may encounter some runoff from inundated Sukhothai province, he said.
Phichit Industrial Estate is not located near any waterways, such as the swelling Yom River, said Mr Veeris. A flood wall 3.9 metres high surrounds the complex, with three water pumps in place to help protect the site from flooding, he said.
Bangkok governor Chadchart Sittipunt inspects conditions along the Chao Phraya River on Tuesday to assess flood prevention measures in the Thai capital. Nutthawat Wichieanbut
SITUATION STILL 'MANAGEABLE'
According to the Federation of Thai Industries (FTI), factories remain safe from the floods as runoff makes its way downstream to the Chao Phraya River, while the transport of goods would only be affected for a short period of time.
Media reports suggest the flooding and runoff last week inundated more than 471,000 rai of land in the provinces of Chiang Rai, Phayao, Lamphun, Phrae, Sukhothai, Phichit, Phitsanulok and Nakhon Sawan, with up to 252,362 rai of paddy fields submerged. Yet according to the FTI's latest inspection, the flooding has yet to cause any direct impact to the manufacturing sector.
"Factories operated by FTI members are unaffected by the flooding," said Kriengkrai Thiennukul, chairman of the FTI, adding that there are not many factories based in the North.
Logistics in the northern provinces encountered some disruptions, with goods transport delayed by flooding on some routes. However, the situation is expected to normalise shortly, he said.
The FTI is inspecting the supply chain for agricultural produce and processing plants to determine any potential indirect effects of the flooding, said Mr Kriengkrai.
"Our members upcountry are working with state officials to donate emergency supplies and raise funds to help flood victims," he said.
The floods this year are unlikely to be as severe as the heavy inundations seen in 2011 and 2022, according to media reports citing the Office of the National Water Resources.
In 2011, Thailand encountered five major storms, causing substantial runoff along the Chao Phraya River, leading to severe floods over a wide area, including those where factories were located.
The average rainfall was 24% higher than normal in 2011, said Surasee Kittimonthon, secretary-general of the Office of the National Water Resources.
Thailand experienced significant flooding again in 2022 when Tropical Storm Noru struck in September, affecting 54 provinces between Sept 28 and Oct 8. The average rainfall exceeded the normal level by 27% -- the highest level recorded in four decades, he said.
Honda Automobile (Thailand)'s car assembly plant in Ayutthaya was severely flooded in 2011, causing it to build an additional factory in Prachin Buri in the country's eastern region.
"We believe the car industry will not be seriously affected by floods this year because many factories are located in the East," said Surapong Paisitpatanapong, vice-chairman of the FTI and spokesman for its Automotive Industry Club. "In fact, the greater concern is difficulty in accessing consumer auto loans."
While the flooding appears to be manageable, Mr Surapong said it is too early to conclude whether the auto industry will be entirely spared from this year's floods.
In October 2022, floods affected domestic car sales in many categories, especially upcountry, though the pickup sales volume increased by 28.4% year-on-year. That was probably because pickups are ideally suited for driving through floods, said Mr Surapong at the time.
In the parcel delivery business, Alex Ng, chief executive of courier service KEX Express (Thailand) Plc, said the company has an established protocol for dealing with floods in cities or provinces. He said the flooding still does not look too bad, so the company has yet to form a special task force to handle the situation.
KEX Express is dealing with delivery traffic under its regular protocol. If the situation deteriorates significantly, the company will devise emergency plans, said Mr Ng.
COLLABORATION REQUIRED
Sanan Angubolkul, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, called for closer collaboration among state agencies to come up with plans to address new flood risks, in addition to ongoing efforts to provide prompt assistance to households impacted by flooding in the North.
He said the chamber and the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce conducted a preliminary estimate of the flood damage, tallying 4-6 billion baht or 0.02-0.03% of GDP. The damage requires further monitoring and reassessment as many provinces are still at risk of inundation, said Mr Sanan.
The estimate determined the agricultural sector was the most severely affected, followed by the service and industrial sectors.
In the short term, the chamber proposes the government set up a frontline water management centre in flood-prone areas, chaired by the prime minister to integrate policies across sectors and ministries.
The government should prepare to deal with floods in the central region and Bangkok over the next two months because of forecasts calling for higher rainfall levels, he said.
If the government has a clear preventive plan in place, it would greatly reduce the potential impact and damage to people and the economy, said Mr Sanan.
The chamber, through the Commercial Welfare Foundation, has been accepting donations nationwide for daily necessities, distributing them to people in inundated areas via provincial chambers of commerce.
Various private networks have delivered consumer goods and survival kits to ease the burden on people affected by the floods.
As these areas recover, the country needs a post-disaster rehabilitation plan for affected areas to reinvigorate the public and restore business sectors, he said.
The chamber and Thai Board of Trade, operating via the Retail and Service Commission, have joined forces with the country's leading modern retail and wholesale operators such as Tops and Thaiwatsadu to ease the burden of people and entrepreneurs affected by flooding by organising campaigns to reduce the prices of consumer products, electrical appliances and home refurbishment items.
An aerial view of a landslide that hit a residence in Phuket's Karon subdistrict on Aug 23. Courtesy of Facebook: Phuket Info Center
NATIONAL AGENDA
Somchai Suwachittanont, assistant chief executive of KTIS Group, wants the government to declare water management issues as a national agenda item to better protect sugar and other agribusinesses against floods and drought.
Kaset Thai International Sugar Corporation Plc (KTIS) is monitoring the floods, though they have not caused any serious damage to the company's sugar business.
Mr Somchai said agriculture is one of the most important sectors in the economy, generating food and income for the majority of Thais.
However, the agricultural sector faces many challenges attributed to climate change such as floods and drought, which directly affect productivity and the incomes of farmers. As a result, the government should prioritise water resource management, which should be declared a national agenda item, he said.
"All hands should be on deck, and fully invested in water management," said Mr Somchai. "Key questions include how can we store a large amount of water, including this year, for use in the years to come, and how can the government ensure water security for local farmers during drought."
He said the company's sugar-cane contract farmers are not being affected by the floods in the North.
KTIS expects its production to increase by 15-20%, attributed to higher rainfall amounts this year, said Mr Somchai.
He said as an agricultural company, climate change is regarded as a business risk, with periods of drought likely to have a significant impact on cane production.
"KTIS has already helped local farmers through preventive measures, such as extracting groundwater and digging ponds," said Mr Somchai.
TOURISM UNDER THREAT
Thaneth Tantipiriyakij, president of the Phuket Tourist Association, said Phuket could lose its competitiveness to other destinations if a long-term water management plan and large infrastructure investment are not initiated urgently.
Phuket dealt with severe floods last month, disrupting transport and airport operations, while a landslide caused by heavy rains killed 13 people, including 11 foreigners.
Mr Thaneth said these outcomes reflect a lack of preventive infrastructure and urban management, which could help handle the worsening impacts of climate change.
He said the province receives roughly 160-170 million baht in development funds per year, which is inadequate to build significant infrastructure projects such as roads, retaining walls, a water management system or public transport. The combined price tag would be 1-10 billion baht.
"Phuket is a major province that helps drive the country's economy, but we receive a very limited development budget, which is not proportional to our potential," said Mr Thaneth.
He said experts had already raised concerns about buildings being developed in elevated areas and foothills before the landslide. This forced a change in the direction of water flow from elevated areas, while some areas had construction sites blocking the natural waterway, resulting in severe landslides, said Mr Thaneth.
While most properties in Phuket are built legally, he said he believes some may have been developed without permission, which should be immediately addressed by authorities.
Tourism operators are also concerned about discussions to revise laws regarding city planning and natural resources in Phuket, in a bid to attract investors amid a limited supply of land.
The Natural Resources and Environment Ministry is drafting new regulations, including extending the height limit for buildings from 80 metres to 140 metres above sea level. This would allow the development of taller buildings across numerous zones in Phuket, with more or less the same or an even shorter setback length, said Mr Thaneth.
"The government should instead prioritise accelerating necessary infrastructure, including delayed projects such as the motorway, the Patong tunnel and public transport, to be competitive with other top destinations," he said.
As the government has pledged to promote second-tier cities, Phuket and other major tourism destinations should be a springboard for the cities, said Mr Thaneth.
Water shortages during the dry season are another concern, and he suggested accelerating the water pipeline project connecting Phuket and the Rajjaprabha Dam.
