The Ministry of Finance expects more than 300 billion baht in government funds will be injected into the economy during the final quarter this year, pushing GDP growth to the anticipated range of 2.7% to 3%.
According to Lavaron Sangsnit, the ministry’s permanent secretary, the funding will come from four main sources, including an additional budget of 122 billion baht to fund the digital wallet handout. The initial distribution of funds, now expected to be in cash, will cover about 14 million people.
Investment in Vayupak Fund units should inject another 150 billion baht into the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) in October, he said.
More investment funding is expected from revamped units of the Thai ESG Fund, while the fiscal 2025 expenditure budget of 3.75 trillion baht, which starts on Oct 1, should lead to several disbursements from October to December, said Mr Lavaron.
He said the Vayupak Fund would proceed as planned, with the investment prospectus to be issued on Sept 10, detailing the guaranteed minimum and maximum returns for investors.
Retail investors can subscribe to investment units between Sept 16 and 20, while institutional investors can subscribe from Sept 18-20, said Mr Lavaron.
Payment for subscribed units is due from Sept 25-27, he said.
The Vayupak Fund is scheduled to start investing in the SET on Oct 1, with trading expected to begin by Oct 10.
Pornchai Thiraveja, director-general of the Fiscal Policy Office (FPO), said the injection in the fourth quarter offers an upside for the economy, potentially pushing economic growth this year to between 2.7% and 3%, depending on various factors.
For instance, if the 122 billion baht for the stimulus, at 10,000 baht per person, is fully spent by the end of the year, GDP could be increased by 0.3 percentage points, he said. However, if not all funds are spent within the year, the contribution to GDP could be a rise of 0.2 points.
On July 26, the FPO forecast the economy would grow by 2.7% this year, up from 1.9% in 2023, driven mainly by the service and tourism sectors.
During the second quarter this year, positive economic signals included continued growth in real value-added tax collection over the first two quarters of 2024 and a 26.3% increase in foreign tourist arrivals year-on-year.
The government now forecasts at least 36 million foreign arrivals this year with average spending of 47,000 baht per person per trip.
The National Economic and Social Development Council on Aug 19 predicted GDP growth would be between 2.3% and 2.8% for 2024.