The average price of ICE Brent crude oil in Q3 2024 (from July 1 to September 9, 2024) was $80.4 per barrel, down from an average of $84.9 per barrel in Q2 2024. This decline is attributed to OPEC+’s planned increase in crude oil production by 180 KBD per month from October to December 2024, and by 213 KBD per month from January to September 2025. (Previously, OPEC+ had voluntarily reduced production by 2.2 million barrels per day.) Additionally, demand declined as the US driving season ended, and the political situation in Libya stabilized. However, on September 5, 2024, eight OPEC+ members announced a two-month delay in the production increase plan.
OPEC cut its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2024 and 2025, reflecting data received so far this year, marking the producer group's second consecutive downward revision. The group now expects global oil demand to rise by 2.04 million barrels per day in 2024, reaching 104.25 million barrels per day, which is a reduction of 0.07 million barrels per day from previous forecasts. For 2025, demand is projected to grow by 1.73 million barrels per day, reaching 105.98 million barrels per day, down by 0.13 million barrels per day from prior forecasts. This revision is attributed to the real estate crisis in China, which has delayed the recovery of oil demand in the country.
Meanwhile, the US economy shows signs of slowing. The US Department of Labor reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 142,000 positions in August 2024, lower than analysts' expectations of 160,000.
Moreover, there is a possibility of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas. On September 7, 2024, the largest protests in Israel’s history took place, with approximately 700,000-800,000 demonstrators gathering in major cities such as Tel Aviv, Haifa, and Karkur to urge Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to reach a ceasefire deal. Israel's population stands at around 9.8 million.
The international market analysis team of PTT Public Company Limited's International Trading Business Unit predicts that ICE Brent crude prices in Q4 2024 will likely fluctuate between $70-$85 per barrel. OPEC+ members are expected to increase crude oil production starting in December 2024 by 189 KBD per month, and in January 2025 by 207 KBD per month. OPEC+ is scheduled to hold its Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting on October 2, 2024. Moreover, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17-18, 2024, with most analysts expecting a 0.25% cut in the policy interest rate, bringing it down to 5%-5.25%, which would support the global economy and oil demand.
Attention should also be given to the hurricane season in the US from June to November 2024. In August 2024, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasted 17-24 storms (with winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 8-13 could develop into hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), and 4-7 could become major hurricanes (with winds of 111 mph or higher). Currently, the Gulf of Mexico produces 1.8 MMBD of crude oil ( or 14% of US oil production) and 21.68 MMTA of natural gas (or 5% of US natural gas production).
Source : Reuters
Source : The Business Standard
Source : https://universalproperty.com/united-states-where-hurricanes-hit-most/