Thai exports have performed better than expected this year, says the Thai National Shippers’ Council (TNSC), which expects 2024 forecasts to be upgraded as the year draws to a close.
The group now expects the US dollar value of Thai exports to rise by 4% from 2023, compared with earlier estimates of 1-2%. It predicts further growth of 1-3% in 2025.
The adjustment is attributed to strong exports in the first 10 months, which grew by 4.9%, TNSC chairman Chaichan Charoensuk said on Tuesday.
The council is confident that exports for the last two months of the year will exceed targets, he added.
However, significant risks remain, including geopolitical issues, a manufacturing slowdown, foreign exchange rate volatility, and shipping costs.
Geopolitical issues include concerns over US trade protectionism and policies affecting trading partners with trade surpluses, as well as ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine.
Meanwhile, key markets continue to report weak manufacturing activity, despite short-term demand during major holiday seasons and the upward cycle in electronics goods, said Mr Chaichan.
Thai baht volatility is another issue to be monitored given the uncertainty about US interest rates, inflationary pressures and trade policy under Donald Trump once he assumes the presidency in January.
Mr Chaichan said that although freight rates on major routes have fallen, they remain volatile because of adjustments to the general rate increase, unresolved wage negotiations on the US east coast, and trade policies.
For instance, India’s resumption of rice exports affects Thai exporters, while the postponement of the European Union Deforestation Regulation to 2026 affects rubber exporters.
The council suggests several measures to assist exporters. It recommends that the government and relevant agencies focus on reducing export-related costs, including insurance against foreign-exchange risk and repayment protection.
Additionally, the government should allocate more funding and increase the frequency of trade promotion activities in both primary and secondary markets. Efforts should also focus on expediting free-trade agreement negotiations within existing frameworks and exploring opportunities in potential new markets.