RECAP: Asian stocks followed US equities lower as continual shifts in US President Donald Trump's approach to tariffs on trade partners whipped up market uncertainty and dented confidence in the economic outlook.
Thai shares traded below 1,200 points for most of the week, pressured by tariff uncertainties, Thailand's stalled economic growth and weaker than expected corporate earnings.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,173.13 and 1,211.21 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1,202.03, down 0.1% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 42.04 billion baht.
Retail investors were net buyers of 7.12 billion baht, followed by institutional investors at 1.84 billion. Foreign investors were net sellers of 5.7 billion baht, followed by brokerage firms at 3.18 billion.
NEWSMAKERS: President Donald Trump on Thursday suspended the 25% tariffs he imposed two days earlier on most goods from Canada and Mexico, the latest twist in a fluctuating trade policy that has fanned worries over inflation and a growth slowdown.
- A day earlier, Trump granted a one-month exemption on US automakers' imports from Mexico and Canada, after the Big Three in Detroit explained to him that the levies would push up costs for US car buyers by $3,000 or more.
- Canada in response said it would delay a planned second wave of retaliatory tariffs on US$88 billion worth of US products until April 2.
- China will impose an additional 10-15% tariff on some US agricultural commodity imports starting on March 10 and will temporarily suspend soybean imports from three US firms.
- President Trump signed an order creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, funded exclusively with bitcoin seized in criminal and civil forfeiture cases. The government is estimated to have 200,000 bitcoins, currently worth $17.7 billion.
- US Federal Reserve governor Chris Waller said he still sees a good chance for two or three interest rate cuts by the end of 2025, amid more signs of an economic slowdown in the US.
- China's export growth in January to February rose 2.3% in dollar terms from a year earlier, significantly undershooting an expected 5% increase in a Reuters poll. Imports unexpectedly fell 8.4%, leaving a record trade surplus of $171 billion.
- The US reported a record-high trade deficit in January, jumping 34% to $131.4 billion, as US companies rushed imports ahead of potential tariffs on goods from trading partners.
- China set an ambitious annual growth target of "around 5%" on Wednesday, vowing to pump billions of dollars into the ailing economy to make domestic demand the main driver as the escalating trade war with the US hits exports.
- The European Central Bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the sixth time since June 2024, bringing its key deposit rate to 2.50%. The move was widely expected as inflation has stayed low and economic growth remains weak.
- The Southeast Asian e-commerce leader Sea Ltd, predicted sales at its retail arm Shopee would rise by 20% this year to $120.6 billion, above analysts' estimates, a signal it is succeeding in fending off rivals including TikTok and Lazada.
- Seven & i, the Japanese owner of 7-Eleven, announced measures to fend off a $40-billion takeover by Canadian rival Alimentation Couche-Tard, including a $13.2-billion share buyback and an initial public offering of its US unit.
- Opec+ has decided to proceed with a voluntary oil production increase totalling 2.2 million barrels a day by the end of 2026, starting with a modest rise of 140,000 bpd in April as planned, saying that market fundamentals and the outlook remain strong.
- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC), the world's top producer of AI chips, plans to invest an additional $100 billion in US plants that will boost its chip output there, supporting Trump's goal of increasing domestic manufacturing.
- The Thai Ministry of Finance expects to introduce additional economic stimulus measures targeting the automotive and real estate sectors, including possible relaxation of loan-to-value (LTV) regulations for second-home buyers.
- Thai headline inflation rose 1.08% in February from a year earlier, after a 1.3% rise in January, the Ministry of Commerce said on Friday.
- Operating costs for Thai exporters could spike by 6-8% if aggressive US tariff increases all materialise, the Joint Standng Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking said.
- The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce has proposed setting up a special public-private team to deal with "Trump 2.0" policies, encouraging imports of US agricultural and food products to reduce trade pressure. It estimates Thailand could lose 100-150 billion baht, or 0.5-0.7% of GDP, from tariffs.
- The Thai Credit Card Association is in discussions with the Bank of Thailand to extend the 8% minimum monthly payment rule beyond its current planned expiration at the end of 2025. The rate was cut as low as 5% during the pandemic from 10% normally.
- The Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation (TCG) has earmarked 10 billion baht as a credit guarantee fund for small and medium-sized enterprises seeking to purchase pickup trucks.
- The Federation of Thai Industries (FTI) dismissed rumours about a measure to exchange old cars for new ones to spur the ailing auto sector, noting the issue has been discussed for a long time and no conclusion has been reached.
- Thailand is considering proposals to allow businesses to offset as much as 15% of their greenhouse gas pollution with carbon credits in a planned emissions trading system.
- The cabinet has approved a budget of 153 million baht for the Maha Songkran World Water Festival 2025. The event is expected to attract over 800,000 tourists and generate 3.2 billion baht.
- Thailand recorded a 5.9% year-on-year increase in foreign tourist arrivals to 7 million from Jan 1 to March 2, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports said. Of the total, 1.1 million were from China.
- The manufacturing production index was 98.89 in January, down 0.85% from a year ago but up 8.7% from December, signalling the beginning of a recovery, the Office of Industrial Economics reported. Capacity utilisation was 60.4%.
- A number of condo owners and agents in Bangkok are facing legal action following complaints that some units were being illegally rented out as hotel rooms.
COMING UP: On Monday, Japan releases GDP and Germany reports monthly industrial production. On Tuesday, the US announces job openings. On Wednesday, the US updates core inflation and the Bank of Canada announces an interest rate decision. On Thursday, the US reports initial jobless claims. On Friday, the UK releases monthly GDP and Germany announces monthly inflation.
- Locally, Morningstar announces its Investing Excellence 2025 awards on Monday. On Wednesday, TMBThanachart Bank discusses its 2025 business plan.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Pi Securities recommends selective buying of inexpensively priced stocks expected to show profit growth amid s trade war. Top picks include BBL, CPALL, CPN, CENTEL, MTC, TIDLOR, TU and WHA.
- Yuanta Securities (Thailand) recommends stocks of firms expected to show profit growth in Q1, with limited impact from a trade war. Also recommended are stocks with inexpensive valuations and high dividend yields, and those for which profit estimates have been revised upward. Top picks are ADVANC, ADVICE, BAM, BCPG, CPALL, CPAXT, CENTEL, CBG, ERW and SCB.
TECHNICAL VIEW: InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,160 points and resistance at 1,230. Kasikorn Securities sees support at 1,180 and resistance at 1,220.
