Thailand and Vietnam will be among the "biggest beneficiaries" of Donald Trump's return to the White House, according to one of the largest fund managers in the region.
The two stock markets will get a lift when Trump returns to office, given the likelihood of steeper tariffs on Chinese goods, said Win Phromphaet, executive chairman at Kasikorn Asset Management Company, which oversees more than 1.6 trillion baht (US$46 billion). The tariffs will spur a shift of investment away from the world’s second largest economy and toward the two Southeast Asian nations, he said.
The bullish call is just the latest example of investors in Asia looking for the upside of Trump’s election win. Although the United States President-elect's tough position on China has fuelled worries of global trade tensions, it has also encouraged a hunt for winners across markets as investors game out likely policy moves from the incoming administration.
Thailand's benchmark SET Index is likely to rise 10% from its current level, putting it at about 1,600 at some point next year, said Win. He did not give an index target for Vietnam’s stock market, but said it was one of his top picks.
Kasikorn manages funds that are invested globally across different asset classes. Its biggest foreign investment funds include one that is mainly exposed to Chinese equities, according to its website.
Win's bull case rests in part on history repeating itself: Under Trump's first term, stocks in Vietnam and Thailand outperformed their peers in Southeast Asia, as the two countries attracted foreign investment and grew into manufacturing hubs for industries like automobiles and electronics.
Trump has threatened tariffs of as much as 60% on Chinese goods in his second presidency, and duties of up to 20% on imports from other countries. While rising tariffs would hit Vietnam and Thailand, Win remains confident that the positives will outweigh the negatives.
"Thailand and Vietnam will be among the biggest beneficiaries in the region for manufacturing relocations," he said in an interview on Friday.
The SET Index has rallied more than 13% from a low in August, after a new government led by Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra implemented a series of measures to revive investor confidence.
Vietnam's stock market has gained more than 10% this year, thanks to robust economic growth and hopes that the country will be upgraded to emerging-market status by FTSE Russell.
Customers sit at a rooftop bar in the financial district of Silom, Bangkok. (File photo: Bloomberg)