Listed companies posted total net profit of 193 billion baht in the third quarter, down 29% year-on-year and a 24% decrease from three months earlier, with analysts saying earnings for the whole of 2024 are likely to fall below their forecast.
Net profits for the first nine months totalled 730 billion baht, representing 69% of the full-year estimate. According to Daol Securities, the third-quarter profits of listed companies are lower than stock market analysts' predictions within a range of 10-20%.
"There is a tendency that this year's profit will be lower than we expected due to special items of energy and petrochemical stocks that are very high this quarter," said analysts at Daol Securities.
Daol said the recently released financial results have prompted listed companies to significantly lower their 2024 profit estimates. As a result, the Stock Exchange of Thailand index dropped last week while the market also lacks new positive factors.
This week, there are domestic factors to follow, including a meeting of the stimulus board on Tuesday, during which analysts predict the government will approve additional stimulus measures. These include the second phase of the 10,000-baht cash handout targeting senior citizens, measures to tackle the high debt among households and small and medium-sized enterprises, as well as measures considered to be a New Year's gift.
In addition, it is likely to have discussions about reducing commercial banks' contribution to the Financial Institution Development Fund, a Daol analyst said in a research note.
In the meantime, the market is eagerly awaiting the Constitutional Court's decision on whether or not to accept the case in which former premier Thaksin Shinawatra is accused of asserting influence over the Pheu Thai Party. The court is expected to make a decision on Nov 22.
In terms of external factors, investors are monitoring the policies of US president-elect Donald Trump and seeking clues about a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at its December meeting.
The market expects the US central bank to trim rates by 0-0.25% at the meeting on Dec 18 while the inflation trend still largely depends on many variables.
"We believe that investors, even in the US, may delay investment decisions due to a large increase in US stock prices and the dollar's appreciation as the dollar index has surged considerably and is approaching 107. That is posing risks to emerging markets, including the Thai bourse, as foreign funds continue to flow from regional exchanges."
From now on, the new round of trade wars will be more intense. China is preparing to deal with Trump 2.0. The Chinese stock market and markets linked to China, such as Thailand, will continue to be pressured by concerns about this issue, the brokerage added.
Meanwhile, Kasikorn Securities said eight companies under the PTT group, which includes energy and petrochemical firms, reported a profit of more than 133 billion baht in the first nine months, down 18.6% year-on-year, due mainly to stock losses, especially in the refinery-petrochemical business.
It is expected that oil prices will move in a range of US$70-75 per barrel. Currently, the price of Dubai crude oil is $75 per barrel. It is expected that the profit in the fourth quarter of the refinery and petrochemical business will recover due to improved refining margins and reduced stock losses.