Tech rebound supports Asian equities

RECAP: Asian equities rose on Friday, with technology stocks in the region rebounding from a selloff that had been prompted by concerns over the revenue outlook for Nvidia Corp.

Thai shares little changed from a week earlier, as investors fretted about Donald Trump's tariff policies and awaited news of more domestic economic stimulus.

The SET Index moved in a range of 1,435.78 and 1,471.48 points this week before closing on Friday at 1,446.30, up 0.3% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 42.93 billion baht. Brokers were net buyers of 2.39 billion baht, followed by foreign investors at 1.02 billion baht. Retail investors were net sellers of 2.9 billion baht and institutions 511.16 million.

NEWSMAKERS: Gold had its best week in a year, gaining 5% on safe-haven demand amid escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war. Spot gold hit $2,687 an ounce after reports that Russia had launched an intercontinental ballistic missile on Ukraine.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree approving the use of tactical nuclear weapons following Ukraine's use of US long-range missiles to strike deep into Russian territory.
• Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has announced a ¥22-trillion ($142 billion) stimulus package covering wage increases, cash handouts to low-income households, semiconductor and AI investment support and energy subsidies.
• The International Monetary Fund warns that retaliatory tariffs between the US and China would undermine Asia's economic opportunities, hurting export-dependent countries, eroding supply chain efficiency and driving up US inflation.
• The parent of the Chinese e-commerce platform Temu, PDD Holdings, said sales growth slowed amid intensified competition and consumer caution in its home market. Revenue in the quarter to Sept 30 was 99.4 billion yuan ($13.7 billion), up 44% from a year earlier.
• Apple Inc has offered to raise its investment in Indonesia tenfold to $100 million within two years in exchange for lifting a ban on sales of the iPhone 16.
• Nvidia's third-quarter results exceeded market expectations, with total revenue up 94% year-on-year, driven by 112% growth in data centre business. However, concerns about overheating in a new AI chip could delay data centre launches.
• Thailand is entering a prime period for investment, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra told the Forbes Global CEO Conference. She announced five stimulus measures for the short and long term, focusing on real estate, infrastructure, agricultural sector upgrades, tourism promotion and private investment support to address economic restructuring.
• Household non-performing loans (NPLs) rose 14% year-on-year to 1.2 trillion baht in the third quarter, while there are growing concerns over the bad debt of small businesses, which rose 20%, according to the National Credit Bureau.
• Thailand's economy grew in the third quarter by 3%, driven by non-agricultural production, services and accelerated government investment, said the National Economic and Social Development Council. But it has revised down its full-year forecast to 2.6% from 2.5% and projects just 2.8% growth in 2025. Risks include Donald Trump's economic policies and high household and business debt levels.
• The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce estimates that 60% US tariffs on Chinese goods, if they materialise, would cause economic damage of 160 billion baht to Thailand. Exports would drop 1.5% and GDP growth would be 0.9 percentage points lower than projections.
• A Board of Investment team has visited Shanghai to attract investment amid Chinese company concerns over US election results. They met with battery and electronics companies to promote Thailand as a production base. In the first nine months, Chinese investment applications in Thailand reached 114 billion baht.
• Tourism and Sports Minister Sorawong Thienthong has asked the Tourism Authority of Thailand to finalise details of the "We Travel Together" promotion with the Ministry of Finance. It is expected to be ready for the next off-peak (March-June) tourist season.
• The Thai National Shippers Council says rapid baht depreciation benefits exports and recommends foreign-exchange risk hedging. It sees an appropriate baht value at 34-35 to the US dollar.
• New appointees to the tripartite national wage committee are awaiting cabinet approval, say Government House sources. The committee is expected to meet in December as the government continues its push to raise the minimum wage to 400 baht a day nationwide, from the current range of 330 to 370 baht.
• The economic stimulus board has approved in principle a proposal under which banks would suspend interest payments for three years for qualified debtors. The Bank of Thailand reportedly will consider halving banks' Financial Institutions Development Fund contributions to 0.23% to free up funds for them to cover an interest moratorium.
• The Ministry of Finance expects phase 2 of the 10,000-baht handout to 4 million people aged 60 and above to start in December. Phase 3, covering 14 million people and costing 140 billion baht, is expected to start in April.
• The Ministry of Finance is ready to convert all the debt it is owed by Thai Airways International to equity, asking the cabinet to allow it to maintain a stake of at least 40%. THAI is expected to exit rehabilitation soon and resume trading on the SET in May 2025.
• The Association of Investment Management Companies says 16 member firms are ready to offer 42 Thai Environmental, Social and Governance (ThaiESG) funds, with at least five new funds targeting investment of at least 25 billion baht this year.
• The real estate sector is preparing to benefit from the Trump effect, with condominiums worth 30 billion baht awaiting transfer. The industry is also monitoring Chinese and Taiwanese companies aggressively buying land in Chon Buri and Rayong, building factories outside industrial zones with a boom in warehouses, offices and residences.
• Thai condominium unit sales to Myanmar nationals in the first nine months of 2024 tripled from a year ago, making them the second-largest group of foreign buyers after those from China.
• Shares of Delta Electronics (Thailand) plunged almost 20% early Wednesday after the SET imposed market surveillance measures on the bourse's largest stock in terms of market capitalisation, citing unusual trading patterns.

COMING UP: On Monday, South Korea announces consumer confidence and Singapore announces October inflation. Tuesday brings US consumer confidence and new home sales, and a Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate decision. On Wednesday, the US will report revised third-quarter GDP and updated personal consumption expenditure. On Thursday Germany and Japan will report inflation, and Japan will update industrial production.

• Locally, Bangkok Insurance will discuss its 9-month results on Monday, and Thai Airways will hold a briefing on its rehabilitation plan on Wednesday. The SET will discuss its 2025-27 business plan on Thursday.

STOCKS TO WATCH: InnovestX Securities recommends stocks expected to benefit from new stimulus, the second phase of the 10,000-baht handout, Easy e-Receipt and other factors. They include Commerce plays CPALL, CPAXT, CRC, HMPRO and TNP. Beneficiaries of a strong dollar and a weak baht are CPF and DELTA, and tourism plays AWC, AOT and MINT. Stocks expected to outperform and report strong Q4 earnings include GULF, OSP, CBG, AMATA, AU and TIDLOR. Finally, look for stocks with high dividend yields and expected to be targets of the Vayupak Fund and tax-deductible funds, notably BBL, ADVANC and HMPRO.

• Asia Plus Securities sees rising Russia-Ukraine tension pushing up oil prices. The first resistance, at $76 a barrel, is positive for local oil and refinery stocks including IRPC, BCP, PTTEP, PTT and PTTGC.

TECHNICAL VIEW: Trinity Securities sees support at 1,420 points and resistance at 1,470. Asia Plus Securities sees support at 1,435 and resistance at 1,467.