RECAP: Asian shares mostly rose on Friday, led by China, amid speculation that Beijing will provide more support for the economy at a key policy meeting in December.
- In the absence of new catalysts, the Thai stock market finished in negative territory on all five working days this week and slipped below the support level of 1,430 points since Thursday.
- The SET index moved in a range of 1,421.96 and 1,455.39 points this week, before closing on Friday at 1,427.54, down 1.3% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 40.11 billion baht.
- Retail investors were net buyers of 3.2 billion baht, followed by brokerage firms at 891.43 million. Foreign investors were net sellers of 3 billion baht, followed by institutional investors at 1.09 billion.
NEWSMAKERS: China and Mexico lashed out after Donald Trump threatened to begin his presidency with a trade war against the top three US economic partners. The president-elect has threatened 25% import tariffs against neighbours Canada and Mexico if they don't stop illegal immigration and drug smuggling into the United States. China would face 10% tariffs on all goods.
- Mexican Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said a 25% across-the-board tariff would cause the loss of 400,000 jobs and slow growth in the US, while also hitting Mexican exports. "It's a shot in the foot," he said.
- China on Thursday extended tariff exemptions on selected American import items, implying it may be less willing to take a hard line until it sees whether Mr Trump will make good on his tariff threats.
- The outgoing Biden administration is weighing additional curbs on sales of semiconductor equipment and AI chips to China that would escalate the crackdown on Beijing's tech ambitions, sources say.
- The US economy grew at a solid pace in the third quarter amid robust consumer spending. GDP increased by 2.8% year-on-year, the Commerce Department said. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, rose 0.4% in October, it added.
- The yen had its best week in four months as strong inflation data had traders favouring an imminent rate hike by the Bank of Japan. The yen briefly breached 150 against the dollar yesterday and was up 1.2% from Thursday.
- South Korea's central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.00% on Thursday, delivering its first back-to-back cuts since the global financial crisis of 2008-09.
- The Chinese tech giant Huawei has unveiled the Mate 70, its first smartphone equipped with HarmonyOS Next, a fully homegrown operating system that will reduce dependence on Android.
- Global smartphone sales rebounded strongly in 2024 after two successive years of decline, but Apple barely managed growth, the market tracker IDC says. It forecast 6.2% growth industrywide from a year ago, to 1.24 billion units, but said iPhone volumes would be only 0.4% higher.
- Samsung Group, South Korea's biggest conglomerate, has for the first time in its 86-year history named a woman who is not member of its founding family as CEO of a group company. Kim Kyung-Ah, 55, will take the helm of Samsung Bioepis Co, the company announced.
- The US composite purchasing managers' index (PMI) hit a 31-month high in November, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts and more business-friendly policies from the Trump administration. But new orders for US-made goods fell for a second month, losing 0.5% in September after falling 0.8% in August.
- The People's Bank of China on Monday kept its medium-term lending rate unchanged at 2% on 900 billion yuan ($124 billion) worth of one-year loans to financial institutions.
- Toyota Motor said its global output for October fell 1.3% to 1.02 million units, hit by tough price competition in China and a recall in North America.
- Nissan Motor said global production fell for a fifth straight month in October. Global sales also dropped for a seventh month but sales in Nissan's core market, the US, grew for the first time in three months.
- Volkswagen said it was disposing of its ownership stakes in facilities in the Xinjiang region of China, exiting an area where activists say have alleged persecution of Muslims and forced labour on a large scale.
- Apple Inc's proposal to invest $100 million in Indonesia hasn't met "fairness" principles, Industry Minister Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita said, signalling that Jakarta wants a better offer in return for lifting a ban on iPhone 16 sales.
- Commercial bank lending in Thailand contracted by 2% in the third quarter, the first negative growth in 14 years, the Bank of Thailand reported. Non-performing loans edged up to to 2.97% across all sectors.
- The National Economic and Social Development Council said household debt in the second quarter grew 1.3% year-on-year to 16.32 trillion baht, but the value as a share of GDP edged down to 89.6%.
- The Stock Exchange of Thailand plans to use artificial intelligence tools to improve monitoring of listed companies as it grapples with rising instances of corporate fraud, president Asadej Kongsiri said on Thursday.
- The International Monetary Fund forecasts Thai economic growth of 2.7% this year and 2.9% in 2025, driven by fiscal stimulus, increased public investment and the recent reduction in the benchmark Bank of Thailand interest rate to stimulate activity.
- The Ministry of Energy announced a marginal reduction in electricity tariffs from 4.18 baht to 4.15 baht per unit for the January-April 2025 period, saying it would help ease the cost of living.
- The Office of Industrial Economics has revised its forecast for the Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) for 2024 to -1.6%, down from a previous projection of -1% to 0%, to reflect uncertainty surrounding US economic policies, slowing economic growth at trading partners, tight domestic purchasing power, high household debts and bad loans.
- Thailand's exports in October grew 14.6% year-on-year to $27.2 billion, the highest in 19 months. Imports increased by 15.9% to $28 billion, resulting in a trade deficit of $794 million. The export growth target for the year has been adjusted to 4%.
- Thai Airways International expects to raise up to 44 billion baht from a share rights offering, its final major step to exit court-supervised debt restructuring and allow the resumption of trading of its shares.
- A government plan to launch a car trade-in programme is meant to revive domestic car sales, but manufacturers and industry observers say it might not be enough, requesting more new measures to end the long slump.
- The Thai Automotive Industry Association has cut its 2024 vehicle production target from 1.7 million units to a four-year low of 1.5 million units. The forecast was cut from 550,000 to 450,000 units for domestic sale, and from 1.15 million to 1.05 million units for exports.
- The Office of Insurance Commission expects life insurance premiums to reach 980 billion baht in 2025, up 3.9% from this year, moving up to 1 trillion in 2026. Health insurance is the strongest segment, with premiums expected to reach 1 trillion baht this year.
- Medical costs in Thailand, which have been skyrocketing since 2020, are projected to increase by another 15% next year, requiring sustainable solutions and joint efforts from individuals, the private sector and the government, say the global consultancy Willis Towers Watson.
COMING UP: On Monday, the US reports construction spending and manufacturing PMI, and the euro zone updates unemployment figures. Tuesday brings updates on US job openings, and Japanese and Chinese services PMI. On Wednesday, the US reports services and non-manufacturing PMI, and Fed chairman Jerome Powell speaks. On Thursday, the US reports October trade data and the Reserve Bank of India holds a rate meeting. Friday brings US payrolls and unemployment, and Chinese trade figures.
- Locally, Bank of Thailand governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput and SET president Asadej Kongsiri will join economists and bankers at an economic forum hosted by Money & Banking Magazine on Tuesday.
STOCKS TO WATCH: InnovestX Securities recommends firms expected to report strong Q4 profit with potential for further growth, including GULF, OSP, CBG, AMATA, AU, TIDLOR and BCP. Stocks with a dividend yield of at least 3.5% and expected to be targets of Vayupak and other tax-deductible funds include BBL, ADVANC and HMPRO.
- Asia Plus Securities recommends firms with good fundamentals and low price per book value, and stocks whose prices have fallen significantly, including IRPC, PTTGC, BANPU, TOP, BBL, BCPG, SCC, AP, KKP, QH, BJC, PTT, HANA and SJWD. Possible beneficiaries of the SET's carbon credit ecosystem plan include STA, THCOM, GUNKUL, TPCH, WHAUP, GPSC and DITTO.
TECHNICAL VIEW: InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,410 points and resistance at 1,440. Asia Plus Securities sees support at 1,407 and resistance at 1,450.