RECAP: Most Asian equities advanced yesterday as markets reacted positively to news that reciprocal US tariffs may be weeks from coming into effect, raising the prospect for negotiations.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,262.41 and 1,298.72 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1,272.10, down 0.8% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging 47.59 billion baht.
Retail investors were net buyers of 2.74 billion baht, followed by brokerage firms at 702.13 million. Foreign investors were net sellers of 1.93 billion baht, followed by institutional investors at 1.51 billion.
NEWSMAKERS: President Donald Trump announced a reciprocal tariff policy for all countries that impose higher import taxes on US goods. The tariffs are expected to be enforced starting around April 1.
- Trump on Monday expanded the 25% US import tariffs on steel and aluminium to cover all countries without exceptions.
- US inflation in January was higher than expected at 3.0%, fanning fears that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. Producer prices inched up by 0.4%, versus forecasts of 0.3%. Most analysts now believe the Fed will make only one rate cut this year.
- China's January Consumer Price Index rose 0.5% year-on-year to a five-month high, exceeding market expectations. But producer prices contracted 2.3%, worse than forecast and indicating continuing sluggishness in manufacturing.
- Nissan and Honda shares surged in Tokyo yesterday after the companies confirmed they had scrapped merger talks, while Nissan detailed a new restructuring plan, opening the door to other potential suitors including Foxconn and the US private equity giant KKR.
- Chevron, the second-largest US oil and gas company, said it would lay off up to 20% of its workforce, or 9,000 people, as part of a cost-cutting effort.
- The consumer electronics giant Sony said operating profit rose 22.9% in the first nine months of the financial year. It raised its operating profit forecast for the year by 2% to 1.34 trillion yen, citing the strength of its gaming business.
- Alibaba stock surged as much as 8.6% after reports that Apple Inc is working with the e-commerce pioneer to roll out AI features in China.
- The OpenAI board has rejected a $97.4-billion takeover bid led by X owner Elon Musk. Musk has said he will withdraw the bid if the ChatGPT maker drops its plan to become a for-profit company.
- The Chinese search engine Baidu said it would make its next-generation AI model Ernie open-source from June 30.
- The UK consumer goods giant Unilever said net profit dropped 11% in 2024 to 5.7 billion euros ($5.9 billion), hit by an exit from Russia and other restructuring costs.
- The Philippine central bank unexpectedly kept rates steady on Thursday at 5.75%. It had cut rates by 25 basis points at each of its previous three policy meetings.
- Vietnam plans to take loans from the Chinese government to help fund an $8.3-billion railway linking the countries.
- Singapore said its GDP expanded 5% in the three months through December, beating a preliminary reading of 4.3%.
- The Board of Investment said Mazda Motors of Japan plans to invest 5 billion baht to make Thailand its main production base for hybrid vehicles. The target is to produce 100,000 units annually for worldwide export.
- The Ministry of Finance is reviewing personal income tax criteria for foreign-sourced income brought into Thailand, aiming to create incentives for bringing funds back into the country.
- Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira said improved criteria for long-term equity funds (LTF) are being studied, including conditions for transferring matured LTF funds to the newly established ThaiESG fund, with clarity expected by September. The SET has said LTF selling pressure was contributing to market volatility this year.
- The Consumer Confidence Index rose to an eight-month high of 59.0 in January from 57.9 in December, driven by government stimulus, said the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce.
- The Ministry of Finance has approached the Thai Credit Guarantee Corporation to increase its guarantee for commercial vehicle loans from the current 30% to help stimulate purchases.
- The Federation of Thai Capital Market Organizations' Investor Confidence Index improved to neutral last month from bearish a month earlier, supported by government stimulus, while fund outflows were the biggest drag.
- The Social Security Fund is making major portfolio strategy changes, increasing risk asset allocation with 40% in foreign investments and 60% in Thailand. It is targeting a 5% return this year, focusing on US, European and Japanese markets.
- MSCI has announced its quarterly index review, to take effect with the closing prices on Feb 28. In the MSCI Global Standard, no Thai stocks were added while two stocks -- PTT Global Chemical (PTTGC) and Thai Oil (TOP) -- were removed. In the MSCI Global Small Cap, four stocks were added and 11 removed.
- The government has submitted the name of Somchai Sujjapongse, a former finance ministry permanent secretary, as its candidate for chairman of the Bank of Thailand board, as the months-long selection process drags on.
- SiamAI Cloud, a Bangkok-based AI cloud provider, plans to invest 70 billion baht this year to expand its AI-ready infrastructure to turn Thailand into an AI hub in Southeast Asia.
- Thailand's foreign tourist arrivals from Jan 1 to Feb 9 were 17.1% higher than in the same period a year earlier, the Ministry of Tourism and Sports said on Tuesday. The 4.8 million arrivals included 825,000 from top-ranked China.
- The Thai Hotels Association said its January confidence index shows most members are concerned about a global economic slowdown, followed by rising costs for labour, energy and raw materials, as well as intense price competition.
COMING UP: On Monday, the Reserve Bank of Australia begins a two-day interest rate meeting, and the euro zone releases trade figures. Tuesday brings Japanese trade figures, UK unemployment and Canadian inflation. On Wednesday, the UK reports consumer and producer prices, Australia releases unemployment data and China will update the five-year loan prime rate. On Thursday, Japan announces January inflation. On Friday, the US reports manufacturing and services PMI and existing home sales, and the UK announces retail sales.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Asia Plus Securities says the Thai stock market could attract more foreign and domestic funds if the proposed transition from long-term equity funds (LTF) to ThaiESG Funds goes ahead. It recommends investors focus on the top three stocks by capitalisation in each sector with ESG ratings of A or higher, such as PTT, CPALL, BDMS, CPN, SCC, CPF, IVL, TLI, HMPRO, PTTGC, GPSC, SCGP, SAWAD, TU and AP.
- Krungsri Capital Securities recommends selective buys of value stocks with good fundamentals, while being highly competitive both internally and externally and ready to grow in the next three years. Recommended are CPALL, BDMS, MINT, BH, GPSC, SCGP and HMPRO.
TECHNICAL VIEW: Aira Securities sees support at 1,260 points and resistance at 1,292. InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,240 and resistance at 1,315.
