RECAP: Asian equities rose yesterday and global markets attempted a rebound after a brutal selloff, while gold reached a record as rising trade tensions left investors nervous and sparked a flight to safe-haven assets.
Thai shares traded below 1,200 points all week. The SET said the exchange has entered a correction phase, having declined 17.9% as of February's close from the peak of the current cycle.
The SET index moved in a range of 1,157.96 and 1,196.52 points this week, before closing yesterday at 1,173.76, down 2.4% from the previous week, with daily turnover averaging only 39.04 billion baht.
Retail investors were net buyers of 8.62 billion baht, followed by institutional investors at 1.45 billion. Foreign investors were net sellers of 8.29 billion baht, followed by brokerage firms at 1.78 billion.
NEWSMAKERS: Gold pushed closer to $3,000 an ounce, with the spot price reaching a record $2,993.80 on Friday, driven by uncertainty over US tariffs, and growing expectations of US interest rate cuts.
- European Union lawmakers are looking to target €26 billion worth of US goods after President Donald Trump imposed a 25% levy on steel and aluminium imports. The bloc will target politically sensitive goods including soybeans.
- The EU imposed 50% tariffs on US whiskey, prompting Trump to threaten tariffs of up to 200% on wine and spirits imported from the EU.
- Trump reversed plans to double steel and aluminium tariffs on Canada to 50% after the premier of Ontario suspended a 25% tax on electricity exports to Michigan, Minnesota and New York.
- Tesla, the EV maker led by Trump cost-cutting tsar Elon Musk, said in a letter to the US Trade Representative that a trade war could drive up manufacturing costs and make its vehicles less competitive in international markets.
- US consumer inflation in February was 2.8% year-on-year, lower than market expectations. Producer price growth was also below forecasts at 3.2%. Both figures signal a slowing economy, which could pressure the Fed to cut rates more than it had expected earlier.
- Inflation in China fell 0.7% year-on-year in February, the most in 13 months and greater than market expectations. Producer prices also fell 2.2%, reflecting ongoing deflationary pressures in the world's second-largest economy.
- The Bank of Canada trimmed its key rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% and raised concerns about inflationary pressures and weaker growth stemming from trade uncertainty.
- The Nasdaq plans to introduce 24-hour trading during the five-day workweek, expected to begin in the second half 2026 if approved by regulators and once the necessary infrastructure is in place.
- Thailand wants to wrap up talks with the European Union, the country's fourth largest trading partner, on a long-awaited free trade deal by the end of the year to reinforce economic security amid potential tariff risks from the US, Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan said on Friday.
- The cabinet has approved the Thai ESG Extra (ESGX) fund, offering tax deductions for transfers from long-term equity funds (LTF) of up to 500,000 baht. Thai ESGX purchases made in May and June will also qualify for a maximum deduction of 300,000 baht.
- Total investment in environmental, social and governance (ESG) funds is projected to exceed 100 billion baht in the second half of this year, including transfers from maturing LTFs, says the Association of Investment Management Companies.
- SET-listed companies experienced a 3.7% drop in net profit in 2024 due to a slight increase in production and management costs, the exchange said.
- The Consumer Confidence Index in February declined for the first time in five months to 57.8 due to concerns about a trade war and slow Thai economic growth, despite support from stimulus measures, the Thai Chamber of Commerce said.
- The industrial sentiment index rose in February for a second month, reaching 93.4, from 91.6 in January, to its highest reading since June 2023, supported by a central bank rate cut, economic stimulus and continued tourism growth.
- A government credit guarantee to support pickup truck purchases by small businesses could help generate at least 100,000 sales in the struggling sector, the Federation of Thai Industries said.
- The Chinese battery cell maker Sunwoda Electronic is investing 50 billion baht to build two new factories in Chon Buri and use Thailand as its export base, said the Board of Investment.
- The government expects its retirement lottery to attract an additional 13 billion baht in annual savings, through the sale of 5 million lottery tickets, Deputy Finance Minister Paopoom Rojanasakul said.
- The Energy Regulatory Commission has proposed three possible electricity tariffs for the May-August 2025 period, ranging between 4.15 and 5.16 baht per unit. The lowest is close to the current rate, contrary to expectations of rates below 4 baht. A cabinet decision is expected in 1-2 weeks.
- The Economic Stimulus Board approved the third phase of the 10,000-baht digital wallet programme for 2.7 million citizens aged 16-20. Distribution is expected to begin late in the second quarter or early in the third quarter. A fourth and likely final phase for other recipients aged 21-60 who were not covered by earlier handouts will be announced later.
- The Association of Thai Travel Agents forecasts 37 million foreign tourists in 2025, a minimal gain from 35.5 million last year, in view of the poor tourism climate. It predicts just 7 million Chinese arrivals, up from 6.7 million last year but below the government's target of 8 million.
- The Ministry of Transport said airlines are cooperating to reduce ticket prices by 30% from ceiling rates and add 25,000 seats to meet travel demand during the Songkran holidays next month.
COMING UP: On Monday, the US releases monthly core retail sales. Tuesday brings a Bank of Japan interest rate decision and Japanese trade figures. On Wednesday, the Fed announces a rate decision and US economic projections, and the euro zone updates inflation data. On Thursday, Switzerland and the UK decide on interest rates, followed by the Bank of Russia on Friday.
- Locally, SCB EIC discusses the economic outlook on Tuesday, and on Thursday Allianz Ayudhya announces a new executive.
STOCKS TO WATCH: Pi Securities notes that the only supporting factors for the Thai stock market at the moment are inexpensive valuations and high dividend payments. It recommends interesting large-cap stocks, such as shopping (CPN), retail (CPALL and CRC), commercial banks (BBL, KBANK, KTB and SCB), and hospitals (BDMS). For short-term investment, speculation in the energy sector (PTTEP) and animal feed (CPF) is recommended.
- InnovestX Securities sees the SET should benefit by efforts from the government and related agencies to restore confidence in the market and stimulate the economy to grow by 3.5%. That could slow down selling pressure, but risk factors remain from US trade policy. Recommended stocks are BCH with a target price of 20 baht, MTC (53 baht) and BTG (25 baht).
TECHNICAL VIEW: InnovestX Securities sees support at 1,145 points and resistance at 1,200. Pi Securities sees support at 1,150 and resistance at 1,200.
