Not quite a quarter of the way through this 21st century and horrifying scenes of inferno are again broadcast across the world -- this time, from Los Angeles. Among the tens of thousands of dazed citizens forced to evacuate are the world's wealthiest climate refugees: business moguls and Hollywood stars.
Human mobility spurred by the climate crisis is a planetary issue that will affect every country. But there is vast inequity in who is most impacted and who receives support -- we see this within Los Angeles just as we see it globally. We must be honest about climate migration: It is inevitable, given the increasingly unliveable conditions around the world. We must manage it rather than pretend we can stop it.
As the planet continues to heat, extreme events will become more frequent and severe, particularly across the tropics. In many latitudes, climate models show the expansion of deserts across farmland, increasing the vulnerability of coastal areas and deltas (the location of many of the world's biggest cities), and deadly heat, making life unbearable and unsafe.
In just the last few years, with global average temperatures nearing and exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above the preindustrial average, we've gotten a taste of what's to come: record-breaking heatwaves with temperatures above 50C (122F) on multiple continents; wildfires causing mass evacuations, from Canada to Australia; storms and floods displacing thousands and destroying vast breadbaskets, from Pakistan to Greece; and drought that shuts down hydropower and devastates harvests, from Zambia to Costa Rica.
By 2070, more than 3 billion people could find themselves living outside of humanity's "climate niche" -- the temperature range that has sustained human activities and to which we have adapted our agriculture and civilisations for millennia.
You will be among them, or receiving them.
As places become unliveable, people will move to safer areas, initially within their own countries, eventually across continents -- initiating a massive redistribution not just of people but also capital, resources, industry, food, and other production. Nowhere will escape the negative impacts of this hotter world, though the far north will generally be safer and better able to adapt.
Already, there are millions of climate-displaced people around the world. Take the Dadaab refugee camp, located in what has become a desert in Kenya. It is home to more than 300,000 refugees, the majority of whom are Somali women and children fleeing chronic drought and starvation, as well as devastating floods. These extreme conditions only exacerbate ongoing conflicts in the region. Closer to home, studies have shown a strong correlation between drought during the growing season in Central America and migration at the US border.
We need a pragmatic, coordinated approach from cities, states, regions, and global bodies.
Thus far, leaders' response to this crisis of displacement has been woeful; rather than focusing on drivers of migration -- climate chaos, environmental degradation, and poverty -- they instead target migrants themselves. Populists control the narrative on immigration, and moderate and left-wing parties let them. Liberal parties are timid, failing to challenge toxic rhetoric with evidence-based facts.
We will not prevent people moving with hateful statements, mass deportation, by building walls, or turning back boats. Instead, we need flexible, progressive policy design that recognises the new world we are entering and generates a new, inclusive, and pragmatic narrative around immigration.
If we want fewer people to have to migrate, we can help them adapt to more extreme conditions -- for example, strengthening buildings against storms and restoring flood plains in the vulnerable areas where they live. And we can still do a lot to prevent conditions from worsening by reducing global carbon emissions.
For both approaches -- adaptation and mitigation -- rich countries must help poorer countries financially. By reducing the debt burden of poor nations and honouring the COP29 pledge to provide them with at least US$300 billion each year to help with adaptation costs. As important, though, will be changing the narrative around migration.
Donald Trump is clearly not the leader to activate this kind of pragmatic approach. But this is a job for more than a mere four years. City mayors, community leaders, heads of industry and commerce, unions, schoolteachers, medics, artists -- all of us have a role in generating the kind of society that can withstand and thrive through the coming upheaval.
Fear has its corrosive power, but compassion gives people a national story to believe in and something to aspire to. That's a far stronger, more powerful message.
If we manage it well, migration could benefit host regions as well as the people who are forced to move.
For instance, immigrants who are allowed to work increase the economic productivity of nations, including the U.S. Immigration overall has led to better -- not worse -- wages and work opportunities for US-born workers. Immigrants generate, in inflation-adjusted terms, nearly $1 trillion in state, local, and federal taxes, which is almost $300 billion more than they receive in government benefits, including cash assistance, entitlements, and public education. Immigration is vital for our economies, especially at a time of declining birth rates.
Well-managed migration requires financial investment in sufficient housing, access to healthcare, education, and infrastructure, as well as social investment in the kind of inclusive society that helps new and existing citizens thrive. Many governments fail to provide these basics to their current population, let alone migrants.
It also requires being upfront about the extent of the climate crisis: What will LA be like in 2040? In 2060? What will Mumbai be like? Miami? Shanghai? It means making hard decisions about which places to shore up, and which to abandon. It means choosing to radically reduce the carbon emissions that are making everywhere more dangerous while rapidly generating clean electricity.
We must use our tools within society to work across borders, recognise our common humanity as we manage disasters and deal with fears, reset the narrative around nationhood, generate hope, and use compassion as a strength. ©Zócalo Public Square
Gaia Vince is a global environmental strategist and author based in London. Her latest book is 'Nomad Century: How to Survive the Climate Upheaval', a finalist for the 2023 Zócalo Book Prize. This was written for Zócalo Public Square.