The vote by the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) board on March 6 to limit its probe into the Senate election to money laundering alone, ditching complaints of criminal association, shows the two coalition parties, Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai (BJT), embracing political compromise after their high-profile showdown.
It's no secret that Pheu Thai was behind the DSI move against the senators, particularly those with close affiliations to the BJT, known as the "blue bloc". The DSI's decision is a setback to the ruling party's bid to contain its ally's growing influence in the legislative branch. And a failure that demonstrates that Pheu Thai, despite being coalition leader, does not have absolute power. To get anything done, it needs the nod from pro-establishment conservatives. Its ally, the BJT, which grows stronger by the day, stands a fair chance of taking the helm as coalition leader after the next election, thanks to its political connections.
Some experts commented that this was a practical solution. It's already within the DSI's remit to investigate money laundering cases, but it requires two-thirds of the DSI board members to support looking into claims of criminal association -- a drastic move that may unseat almost 140 "blue bloc'' senators -- an almost impossible task.
Although some board members' decision to limit the scope of the probe arose over genuine concerns about legal trouble with its connection to Section 157, it is undeniable that it's the case that heavy lobbying paid off for the BJT, which has strong connections with the DSI.
In fact, there was speculation that heavy lobbying by the BJT made the board postpone its first vote on Feb 25. It was certainly no coincidence that all three representatives from the Royal Thai Police (RTP) were absent in both meetings. This absence, which signified a break in the ranks from Pheu Thai, is quite unusual since the RTP is under the supervision of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra. Besides, there are reports that someone in the high echelons of power ordered the RTP to distance itself from the bid. In fact, it's clear that Pheu Thai has little power over seniors and bureaucrats on the board while Anutin Charnvirakul -- the leader of the BJT -- has a lot of friends. For instance, a permanent secretary of the Ministry of Commerce was a classmate of Mr Anutin at Assumption College.
Pheu Thai knew beforehand that the outcome of the March 6 meeting would not be favourable. By telling the media the DSI was "accepting the case" after the meeting was over, Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachaii and Justice Minister Tawee Sodsong, who oversees the DSI, were just trying to "save face" for the ruling party.
The rift between Pheu Thai and BJT widened and became tense after the latter took control of the new Upper Chamber. That's why scandals over dubious land ownership involving the Shinawatra family (Alpine golf course); the Chidchob family (Khao Kradong land plot); as well as the Charnvirakul family (Charnvi golf course in Nakhon Ratchasima) re-emerged as a move to discredit one another in a political game between the two parties.
Moreover, there are reports that Pheu Thai has a cabinet reshuffle plan, and it wants the interior portfolio back from Mr Anutin so that it will control local administration organisations -- a mechanism that may enable the party to perform better in the next polls.
The party also worries about the fact that the new Upper Chamber, with the dominance of the blue bloc senators, will benefit the BJT when the time comes for the appointment of independent panel members, particularly five of the seven election commissioners who are to leave office during August-December this year. A Senate suspension seems to be the most practical tactic for Pheu Thai.
For those who cannot imagine how significant a new EC panel with close affiliations to the BJT could be, it might be worth reminding them that the current EC secretary-general is a native of the BJT stronghold of Buri Ram. So far, it has only submitted three of 300 complaints about the Senate selection to the court before they expire in July.
Moreover, thanks to its power as stipulated by the charter, the Senate will decide whether to endorse three new commissioners of the National Anti-Corruption Commission and two constitutional court judges this year. Not to mention the Senate's power regarding charter amendment.
It's no exaggeration to say that if Pheu Thai pushes for the DSI to pursue the complaints, it may have to form a government without the support of the BJT.
However, it is apparent that the two parties are not ready for the fallout, which will result in a House dissolution and a new election. Instead, they will have to live with their love-hate relationship, using the remaining time to solidify power and increase their popularity -- something difficult for Pheu Thai, which has strong rivals in the BJT and People's Party.
It could be said that the March 6 vote was a ritual with almost no meaning. The 11 members who voted "yes" to a money-laundering probe thought that it was the EC that had the authority to handle the claim about criminal association.
Now, it's clear that only the EC has the authority to probe the alleged criminal organisation. But with only four months left to complete the task, this Senate is likely to survive and serve as a political mechanism in the BJT's favour.
As the second-largest party, the BJT is proving to be a force to be reckoned with, earning the trust of the old guard. The DSI backtracking on the criminal association complaints may have been in no small part due to Mr Anutin's connections with high-ranking court officials.
The BJT and Pheu Thai may continue to wheel and deal over the probe of the Upper Chamber, but in the end, the "blue bloc" Senate will remain unscathed.