Launches of new residential supply in Greater Bangkok will decline for a third consecutive year in 2025, largely attributed to an increase in unsold units carried over from 2024, an uncertain economy and high household debt, according to Kasikorn Research Center.
Last week the centre forecast that there would be a 0.7% year-on-year decrease in new residential supply launched in Greater Bangkok in 2025, down from around 61,450 units launched last year.
The figure for 2024 shrank by 39.5% from around 102,000 units in 2023, which had dropped 5.2% from around 107,000 units in 2022. The 2022 figure represented a 77% surge from a pandemic-era low of around 60,000 units in 2021.
In 2024, all housing types saw a decrease in new supply, led by condos which fell 43%, followed by townhouses (down 41.5%), and single detached houses (down 20.8%).
Despite a significant drop in new supply, the centre expects that the cumulative number of unsold units will not decline, likely exceeding 230,000 units – more than the total recorded at the end of 2023.
Prasert Taedullayasatit, president of the Thai Condominium Association, said market sentiment last year was very poor as home purchasing power was weakened by low economic growth and high household debt.
Geopolitical conflicts, high interest rates and high mortgage rejection rates carried over from 2023, along with lending curbs that remained a major obstacle, were making it difficult for homebuyers to complete unit transfers.
"These factors were further dampened by political change in the third quarter and floods in the fourth quarter," he added. "The poor sentiment in the debenture market caused many developers to delay new project launches."
During the past three weeks, five major SET-listed developers -- Land & Houses, Supalai, Sansiri, Frasers Property Thailand and AssetWise -- announced plans to launch a total of 85 new residential projects worth a combined 140.9 billion baht in 2025.
These figures represent a decline from the 115 projects worth 175.9 billion baht which were launched last year, reflecting decreases of 26% and 20%, respectively, compared to their actual launches in 2024.
Most of these developers will launch fewer sites than last year, while some will introduce fewer projects but with a higher sales value as they shift towards the upper-end market, where purchasing power is stronger than in the lower-end segments.
"Thai people in the middle-to-lower income group have lost the ability to own a home due to economic conditions and rising living costs," said Mr Prasert. "Meanwhile, high interest rates have weakened purchasing power, and the loan-to-value policy has diminished homeownership opportunities."
According to Mr Prasert, the third quarter of 2024 was the lowest point for the residential market, with presales in Greater Bangkok hitting a 13-year low -- since the fourth quarter of 2011 during the great floods -- of 59.5 billion baht.
By price range, the largest year-on-year decrease in presales was in units priced below 3 million baht, which plunged 59%, followed by units priced between 3–5 million baht, down 55%.
The year-on-year decrease in presales for units priced between 7–10 million baht stood at 33%, while there was a 24% decrease in presales for units priced between 5-7 million baht.
The upper-end segments, with units priced at 10 million baht and above, saw declines ranging from 16-22%, while units priced at 10–20 million baht dropped 16%, units priced at 20–50 million baht fell 17%, and units priced at over 50 million baht decreased by 22%.