Bangkok has always been tricky to contest for any aspiring governor, and the main opposition People's Party (PP) is unfazed by the prospect of a tough gubernatorial race due next year.
Having announced on Feb 25 its intention to vie for the country's most sought-after governorship, the party reckons it has home turf advantage.
The PP captured all but one of the capital's 33 seats up for grabs in the 2023 general election. It was a whisker away from securing a clean sweep and left even its most vocal critics stunned.
The party formulated a successful campaign that micro-targeted mostly young voters using social media platforms. Its election messages resonated with urban tech-savvy voters gravitating to reforms, according to a political source.
However, the PP's, and its predecessor the Move Forward Party's (MFP), run of defeats in provincial administrative organisation president races -- except in Lamphun -- have made some PP supporters despondent and doubt the party's prospects in the next general election in 2027.
The party desperately needs to go for a favourable "return match" that will test its relevance before the election comes.
As it happens, Bangkok governor Chadchart Sittipunt is due to complete his term next year, and the PP is jumping at the chance to go for the governorship.
However, it may not be plain sailing as credence has been lent to growing speculation that Mr Chadchart is poised to seek re-election, judging from his move to highlight his achievements of late. These include the dismantling of Lao Market, which for years had completely occupied a pavement adjacent to Klong Toey Market, one of Bangkok's largest produce distribution hubs.
The removal of the market saw the pavement restored and the area relandscaped. Mr Chadchart has been basking in the project's success, and one source expects he could be looking to roll out more short-term achievements to tip the popularity stakes in his favour ahead of next year's race.
Mr Chadchart, if he decides to run for a second term, would be a force to be reckoned with for the PP. He won the 2022 election resoundingly as an independent, having garnered a massive 1,386,769 votes or 52% of the popular vote.
In comparison, the MFP's own candidate at the time, Wiroj Lakkhanaadisorn, came in a distant third, having clinched just 253,938 votes or 9% of the popular vote.
However, the MFP rebounded from Mr Wiroj's defeat with a landslide triumph in Bangkok in the general election the following year.
Now the PP, helmed by Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, has vowed to go for the Bangkok Metropolitan Administration and give Mr Chadchart a run for his money if he chooses to stand again.
The party insisted it does not need to command the executive branch to know how to fix the capital's myriad of problems.
Mr Natthaphong said critics only need to look at the government to see that having power at its disposal does not guarantee an ability to effectively advance major agendas for the country. He said internal rifts in the coalition were holding back the Paetongtarn Shinawatra administration.
"Over the next year, we'll continue formulating our policies for the people of Bangkok," he said, citing PP's so-called "3 Real" approach -- real people, real situations and real places.
Trumpeting its "Hackable Bangkok 2026" campaign, the party has set the stage for voters to share ideas, join forums, and even register as prospective party candidates.
So far, the PP has more than five potential candidates who have executive positions in companies and agencies with diverse backgrounds.
"Without a doubt, they have what it takes to be quality candidates.... They are suited to the job of managing the city," Mr Natthaphong said.
The party has vowed to take Bangkok by storm in the gubernatorial election.
While recognising Mr Chadchart's hard work, Mr Natthaphong insisted the city deserves better policies and a new face to turn Bangkok around.
He also stressed the need to address structural issues, including Bangkok's limited local authority.
Nattacha Boonchaiinsawat, a Bangkok MP who oversees the PP's election strategy, said the party has zeroed in on the critical PM2.5 microdust pollution issue which is impacting the health of city residents.
Concerns have mounted that prolonged exposure to the haze would pose a severe health risk, triggering such ailments as asthma, chronic respiratory disease and heart conditions.
He said the city could do with a long-term solution to get rid of the haze once and for all.
"It's time to deal with the root causes, especially by creating dust-free zones. While facilities may be ready, funding remains lacking.
"We need to prioritise this issue for the sake of clean air for the people of Bangkok and to avoid incurring excessive expenditure," said Mr Nattacha.
The PP has pointed out that the gubernatorial election will be decided by policies rather than candidates' personalities.
"I believe Bangkok voters won't vote on the basis of an individual candidate's persona or the party he or she represents or is affiliated to, but rather the policies that work best for city residents," Mr Nattacha said.
A convenient compromise
Tawee: Not undermining the EC
After waiting for a week, the Department of Special Investigation (DSI) special cases board decided on March 6 to investigate allegations related to last year's Senate election.
The board, chaired by Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, however, opted to probe only claims of money laundering as the DSI found that more than 300 million baht was spent to allegedly fix votes in the election, in violation of the Anti-Money Laundering Act.
It steered clear of criminal association accusations, which sparked a backlash from a group of senators. A criminal organisation charge is a serious criminal offence classified as a threat to national security.
Justice Minister Pol Col Tawee Sodsong, who oversees the DSI, said that evidence pointed to at least 20 senators being involved in alleged money laundering tied to the election.
The agency has a list of more than 7,000 witnesses, nearly half of whom claim to have seen irregularities at the national-level selection process, he said. The DSI is also working with the Election Commission (EC) to seek the removal of implicated senators -- a process expected to take around three months, as the agency has been gathering evidence for some time.
"We're not undermining the EC's authority. Our role is to collect evidence while the EC is responsible for seeking the removal of those selected under unlawful conditions," said the justice minister.
According to observers, the board's decision offers a solution to possible authority conflicts among agencies after questions arose as to who has the jurisdiction to investigate.
However, the move suggests a carefully negotiated political compromise between the ruling Pheu Thai Party and its coalition partner, the Bhumjaithai Party, they say.
With the DSI's probe widely seen as targeting the so-called "blue faction" -- a group of senators linked to Bhumjaithai -- the decision to limit the investigation to money laundering shows that enough action is being taken while avoiding a deeper political rift.
A money laundering probe will take at least a year, and the DSI has about 3,000 witnesses to question.
Notably, before the board decision, Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul and party patriarch Newin Chidchob met with former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the alleged de facto leader of the ruling party, at Thaksin's residence. They were widely believed to have covered a range of issues, including the DSI's ongoing investigation.
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok's Institute, told the Bangkok Post that he expects about 20 senators will be ousted.
The figure, which conveniently matches the number of senators on the reserve list and involved in the DSI's investigation, serves the interests of all parties involved, including the EC, which can reclaim credit and head off criticism for not doing enough, he said.
However, he noted that most of the senators on the reserve list are believed to be connected to Capt Thamanat Prompow, chief adviser to the coalition Kla Dharma Party and the coalition United Nation Party, with only a few having close ties to Pheu Thai.
According to Mr Stithorn, the deal-making between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai is far from over, with more negotiations on the horizon.
With the DSI probe expected to fade into the background soon, he said negotiations between the two coalition partners will shift toward the upcoming appointments to public independent agencies.
The MotoGP Grand Prix has now entered the political scene and might become entangled in political bargaining, according to the analyst.
Reports have surfaced that the government is considering terminating the contract to host the event if it is deemed not worth the investment.
Since 2018, the race has been held at the Chang International Circuit in Buri Ram, the political stronghold of the Bhumjaithai Party, and Mr Newin is an executive of the circuit.
Section-by-section charter amendments are expected to be the next major political flashpoint as Pheu Thai is particularly keen on revising provisions related to ethical standards for political officeholders.
One key target is Section 160, which sets the prerequisites for ministerial candidates, requiring them to be evidently honest with a clean, criminal-free background.
Pheu Thai's push to amend this section is widely seen as an effort to soften the rules, especially after Srettha Thavisin's removal as prime minister following his appointment of ex-convict Pichit Chuenban as a minister.
Prime Minister and Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra herself faces a number of ethics-related complaints, including her shares in the controversial Alpine Golf Club, which is located on a monastic plot. Without enough senators sympathetic to the party, some of Pheu Thai's leading figures, including Ms Paetongtarn, could see their political futures cut short, according to observers.
Perhaps the way to get the senators and Bhumjaithai to show some "sympathy" is to rein them in with the adoption of a certain stern method, they said.