Pundits are tempted to link the recent dismissal of Srettha Thavisin as premier to a Pheu Thai "exit strategy", if one was ever devised, for its fiercely controversial digital wallet scheme.
Srettha: Downfall orchestrated?
The removal of Mr Srettha as prime minister by the Constitutional Court on Aug 14 may have stunned many in the ruling party. Some political watchers, however, had predicted Mr Srettha's end the day the case against him was accepted by the court.
Mr Srettha was held to account by the court for appointing Pichit Chuenban as Prime Minister's Office minister, despite knowing full well about his contempt of court conviction following his bribe attempt in the Supreme Court.
Pichit and two other lawyers tried to bribe Supreme Court officials by handing them a paper bag containing 2 million baht in cash a fortnight earlier.
The three lawyers were representing Thaksin in a case in the Supreme Court in 2008. The court was hearing a case against Thaksin Shinawatra -- who was prime minister at the time -- for helping his then-wife, Khunying Potjaman na Pombejra, secure a prime land deal on Ratchadaphisek Road at a discount.
However, the three were never arraigned for attempting to bribe the court since the police investigating the case found insufficient evidence to recommend their indictment to prosecutors. The Office of the Attorney-General later agreed not to indict the trio on bribery charges.
However, the lawyers were convicted by the Supreme Court for contempt of court in connection with the alleged bribery.
Pichit's high-profile conviction pretty much became common knowledge, and the Constitutional Court said that, as prime minister, Mr Srettha should have been fully aware of Pichit's conviction, which rendered him unfit by law to occupy a cabinet seat.
The judges noted that Mr Srettha was aware of Pichit's dubious past. They highlighted that on Aug 29 last year, he held an urgent meeting to review Pichit's qualifications, indicating that he knew there might be an issue.
According to the court, by going ahead with naming Pichit as a minister, Mr Srettha had committed a severe ethical violation that warranted his dismissal as prime minister.
A political observer reckoned that while Mr Srettha's dismissal caught many off guard, it may have been planned with the ultimate aim of sinking the digital wallet scheme in its present and potentially law-breaking form.
The observer noted Pichit's qualifications presented a problem the first time his name was put forth for a ministerial post in the first Srettha cabinet formed right after Mr Srettha was sworn in as prime minister last year.
At the time, Pichit's nomination was reportedly withdrawn.
The observer has theorised that Mr Srettha may have been under pressure from powerful Pheu Thai figures to admit Pichit into the cabinet, creating a qualification "timebomb" that could easily land Mr Srettha in deep trouble because of the ethics law introduced by the current constitution.
Mr Srettha had been hounded by critics for his inability to rally the Pheu Thai rank and file and stalwarts behind him. Not being an MP with no known faction in the party to back, he was thought as prone to being overshadowed in the party by several ministers, according to the observer.
This perceived insecurity came as the digital wallet was heavily criticised for putting a strain on the budget and doubts were expressed by experts over the legality of sourcing the funds to implement a project costing a whopping half a trillion baht.
The observer wondered whether Mr Srettha's downfall had been anticipated, if not orchestrated, to form a new cabinet and prompt a reset of the wallet programme.
The scheme cannot be scrapped because it was an election promise which Pheu Thai is legally obligated to carry out. However, making Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra prime minister, which has ushered in a new cabinet, could justify the scheme being rejigged to make it more acceptable to the people.
For instance, the new government has said the handout policy will offer cash to recipients instead of digital money in the first phase of the scheme. The digital money is relatively harder to access and spend especially among older recipients and takes longer to cash in for the shops participating in the scheme.
The observer said that from the outset, Mr Srettha may not have been indispensable as prime minister, given that Pheu Thai had registered two other prime ministerial candidates on its reserve list. They were Ms Paetongtarn and party senior executive, Chaikasem Nitisiri.
On the day Mr Srettha was removed from office, leaders of the coalition parties were called to an urgent meeting at the Chan Songla mansion owned by Thaksin. The leaders were reportedly informed of Thaksin's decision to pick Mr Chaikasem as Mr Srettha's replacement.
However, Pheu Thai members demanded that Ms Paetongtarn succeed Mr Srettha. They finally won the day with Ms Paetongtarn announcing shortly afterwards that she stood ready to head the new cabinet.
Complaints keep on coming
Paetongtarn: A misstep could sink her
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and her Pheu Thai Party are understood to have faced nine complaints as the cabinet was being formed, leaving political analysts wondering how long it will last.
One key petition, which was filed with the Election Commission (EC) on Aug 19 by an anonymous complainant, alleges that the main coalition party has allowed itself to come under the influence of Thaksin Shinawatra, Ms Paetongtarn's father, who is no longer a party member.
Under sections 28 and 29 of the Political Parties Act, it is illegal for a party to allow a non-member to exert influence, dominate or instruct party activities in any way. Such an offence comes with serious consequences, including the dissolution of a party.
The petition is thought to have be triggered by recent developments after the ouster of Srettha Thavisin as prime minister by the Constitutional Court on Aug 14 for lacking integrity in appointing ex-convict Pichit Chuenban to the cabinet.
Key figures from coalition parties were spotted at Thaksin's Chan Songla mansion on Charan Sanitwong Road in Bangkok, where they reportedly discussed who would replace Mr Srettha. While early reports said they decided to back Chaikasem Nitisiri, Pheu Thai MPs chose Ms Paetongtarn instead.
Thaksin did not hesitate to publicly engage in politics and critics see it as his open interference in government affairs and evidence that he remains the real boss behind the ruling Pheu Thai Party and the new government, according to observers.
His speech at a high-profile dinner talk "Vision for Thailand 2024" on Aug 22, has been criticised as a concise version of the policy statement that the Paetongtarn government will soon deliver in parliament.
Pheu Thai has also excluded a Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) faction led by Prawit Wongsuwon from the coalition. One misstep could spell trouble for Ms Paetongtarn, according to political observers.
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at the King Prajadhipok's Institute, told the Bangkok Post that how long Ms Paetongtarn's administration stays in power depends on its performance.
The petitions are unlikely to badly affect the Pheu Thai Party because Thaksin is anticipated to lead the conservative camp in fighting the People's Party. If Pheu Thai makes good on its promises and wins over voters, the party is expected to stay in power for the entire term, he said.
It also depends on how well the government can turn Thaksin's ideas into action and whether these ideas are appropriate for the country's situation and in compliance with the law, according to the analyst.
"Unlike when the Thai Rak Thai Party was in power, implementing policy must follow the legal framework. Let's wait for the policy statement. If it turns out to be as bland as Mr Srettha's, it won't work," he said.
Thai Rak Thai, founded by Thaksin, was dissolved over electoral fraud.
According to Mr Stithorn, Mr Srettha was never fully committed to any issues, including the digital wallet handout programme, despite it being Pheu Thai's flagship policy. With regard to the charter rewrite, the ex-premier never went into specifics and only mentioned it in broad terms.
Although ethical standards are deemed to be a major flaw of the Pheu Thai-led government, the coalition is working to address the issue and avoid falling into similar traps, he noted.
A faction led by PPRP secretary-general Capt Thamanat Prompow nominated Narumon Pinyosinwat to replace him as agriculture and cooperatives minister while Bhumjaithai's Chada Thaised withdrew his candidacy for a cabinet post to allow his daughter Sabeeda Thaised to become a deputy interior minister instead.
"Obviously, they were trying to spare the government legal trouble in the future," he said.
According to Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, a political science lecturer at the National Institute of Development Administration, even though the government has strong support in the House, its fate is likely to be decided by the complaints filed against it.
The prime minister is expected to clear herself over a number of issues, including the purchase of a controversial monastic plot, which houses the Alpine Golf Club and a residential complex.
The land in Pathum Thani's Klong Luang district was donated by a widow, Noem Chamnanchartsakda, to Wat Dhammamikaramvoraviharn in Prachuap Khiri Khan back in 1971.
After her death, the Mahamongkut Ratchawittayalai Foundation, which was appointed as executor of her estate, sold the land to Alpine Real Estate and the Alpine Golf and Sports Club, of which Ms Paetongtarn is a shareholder.
Any petitions questioning Ms Paetongtarn's ethics will take time to process, as they will be reviewed by the National Anti-Corruption Commission and the Supreme Court's Office for Holders of Political Positions, he noted.
"But the petition regarding the dissolution of the Pheu Thai Party will be looked at by the Constitutional Court, and the process might only take six months. So, the government is expected to go through the first six months without difficulty. After that, it's anybody's guess what will happen," he said.