A United Thai Nation list-MP has expressed support for a middle path as MPs and Senators continue to thrash out their differences over the size of the majority required to pass a referendum on amending the constitution.
Witthaya Kaewparadai, who is a member of the joint House-Senate panel seeking to resolve the dispute, said he agreed that at least half of all eligible voters must participate in a referendum first, otherwise it would not be considered a referendum at all.
“A referendum is important and the number of participants must be large enough, which by international standards, is [at least] half [of eligible voters]. For example, if there are 42 million eligible voters, 21 million must take part first and the winning vote requires the support of the majority of those who voted,” he said.
“If the number of participants is small, for example if there are 60 million people and only 5 million take part in a referendum, I don’t think that’s a referendum.”
Political observers foresee some scenarios in which turnout for a referendum would be too small for it to be meaningful. For example, the wording of the referendum question as currently proposed has been criticised by pro-democracy activists.
They say that asking people whether they favour amending the charter except for Sections 1 and 2 creates a problem. Section 1 defines Thailand as a single, indivisible kingdom; a democratic regime with the King as the head of state. Section 2 deals with royal prerogatives.
Before it was ordered dissolved, the Move Forward Party contended that Sections 1 and 2 should also be up for discussion. The way the question is worded currently, people who support that view would have to vote “No” even though they favour amending the constitution as a whole. Many such voters might simply refuse to go to the polls.
The Senate favours a so-called double majority, under which at least 50% of eligible voters must take part and at least 50% of the votes cast must approve the referendum question. The House supports a simple majority in which a referendum is adopted if half of those who vote support it.
Mr Witthaya appears to favour the “one and a half” majority rule proposed by Nikorn Chamnong, a Chartthaipattana member who serves as the secretary of the committee, to break the impasse.
The “one and a half” rule means that more than 50% of eligible voters must take part in a referendum. But the “Yes” vote could be less than 50% of ballots cast. This is because voters can also register an abstention or decline a ballot. In a poll with, say, 100 ballots cast, if there were a total of 20 abstentions and declined ballots, leaving 80 Yes and No votes, then 41 Yes votes would be sufficient.
Mr Witthaya said the joint committee is likely to vote to decide the outcome if members cannot agree on the size of the majority.