The drum is rolling once again for the People's Party (PP), now fired up to win Sunday's local election in Udon Thani, a political heartland of the ruling Pheu Thai Party, which it managed to tap into in last year's general election.
The upcoming Provincial Administrative Organisation chairman poll will, without a doubt, be a hard-fought battle for the two largest parties.
On the one hand, Pheu Thai must defend its turf, where it secured a clean sweep in several general elections leading up to last year's poll, at all costs. Pride will be at stake, remarked an observer.
On the other hand, the PP is pulling out all the stops to capture the PAO chairmanship. Its predecessor, the Move Forward Party, had suffered a series of PAO election defeats prior to being dissolved by the Constitutional Court on Aug 7 for undermining the constitutional monarchy.
The MFP was resurrected in the form of the PP, which has continued the PAO losing streak.
PAO polls were called in many provinces as a result of respective PAO chairmen having quit their posts before their terms ended.
Their resignations were tactical, according to the observer. Several figured that they had a better chance of re-election if they stepped down while they remained popular rather than wait until their terms expired, by which time the competition would be tougher, with many opponents being better prepared to go up against them.
The MFP and its ally, the Progressive Movement (PM), were out in force to get acquainted with local voters and promised them reforms, the highlight of which was decentralisation of power whereby people in the provinces could enjoy more control over their administrative and budgetary affairs.
Fast forward to today, both the PP and PM have invested heavily in manpower and resources for the PAO chairman race in Udon Thani. This may well be the PP's opportunity to finally score a victory in a PAO contest.
The source said PP's optimism is justified. The MFP, after all, had successfully proved more than a match for Pheu Thai in last year's general election in the province and snatched a House seat in the Muang district constituency, which encompasses the downtown area, previously held by the ruling party.
The PP is confident this success could be repeated in the PAO poll tomorrow.
It is precisely the reason the party has mobilised its heavyweights to garner support for its candidate, Kanisorn Khurirung, a lawyer with the nickname Haew (water chestnut).
Mr Kanisorn is no stranger to the local political scene. In fact, he is a seasoned politician and was elected Udon Thani municipal councillor in 2004, a Udon Thani PAO member in 2008 and a PAO vice chairman in 2005.
Mr Kanisorn is giving Pheu Thai's candidate, Sarawut Phetphanomporn, a run for his money. Mr Sarawut's electioneering team has been busy putting up campaign posters with Mr Sarawut and Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in the pictures together.
The PP, in the meantime, has roped in personalities like PM chairman Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit and former MFP leader Pita Limjaroenrat to be the star speakers at rallies.
The party realises PP leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut has suffered in leading opinion polls. To shore things up, the party flew Mr Pita in from the US where he has taken time off for an academic programme. Mr Pita addressed supporters at a rally last week.
Mr Thanathorn has also reportedly made weekly trips to Udon Thani and hit the campaign trail with Mr Kanisorn.
Mr Thanathorn has worked from the ground up to build a local support base in the province since 2020. The PM has fielded candidates in all local polls, ranging from PAO chairman, tambon municipal mayor to Tambon Administrative Organisation (TAO) chair contests.
His big break came the following year when the PM won TAO chair elections in tambons Na Sa-ard, Thon Na Lub, Phon Sung, Ban Muang and Na Bua.
As the PM spread its wings in local politics in Udon Thani, the MFP was going from strength to strength on the MP election front. The party grabbed one of 10 House seats in the province from Pheu Thai, which also lost in two other constituencies to Thai Sang Thai, originally labelled as a Pheu Thai offshoot.
It was thought Pheu Thai's impregnability failed thanks to its dwindling support from the red shirts, once the party's backbone.
However, almost a decade of Prayut Chan-o-cha administrations had weakened the red-shirt movement, with many members switching allegiance to the MFP at the height of the resistance against the government.
In the meantime, the lead-up to the Udon Thani PAO race heated up when former premier Thaksin Shinawatra decided to help Mr Sarawut on the campaign trail.
Analysts have predicted a favourable outcome for Pheu Thai in the Udon Thani PAO poll. The ruling party is capitalising on opinion polls that consistently place Ms Paetongtarn ahead of Mr Natthaphong. Also, the recent 10,000-baht handout to the marginalised and underprivileged is likely to help the Pheu Thai candidate.
It was reported that Thaksin, dubbed Pheu Thai's de facto leader, has contacted powerful political families in Udon Thani and called on them to back Mr Sarawut.
Phichai Ratnatilaka Na Bhuket, programme director for politics and development strategy at the National Institute of Development Administration, told the Bangkok Post that Pheu Thai commands a strong support base in the province. Loyal red-shirt supporters also exist in large numbers.
Tagging along with Thaksin on the campaign trail was Yaowapa Wongsawat, one of his younger sisters. She is said to have pulled quite a few strings locally to increase the Pheu Thai candidate's chance of winning.
However, Mr Phichai said the PP's candidate is high-profile, which could easily attract voters.
A new source of tension
Anutin: Agencies doing their job
Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai might not have seen eye to eye on certain issues during their first year as coalition allies, but they managed to ease tensions.
The first sign of a rift emerged when former prime minister Srettha Thavisin spoke in favour of reclassifying cannabis as a narcotic -- a reversal of Bhumjaithai's policy to decriminalise the plant, which was successfully implemented in 2022 during the Prayut Chan-o-cha administration.
The tensions eased when Pheu Thai compromised by expressing support for the enactment of a bill to regulate cannabis use for medical and research purposes, a move widely seen as a signal that the plant would remain off the narcotic drugs list.
Disagreements resurfaced recently over the size of the majority required to pass a charter amendment referendum. The 200-member Senate reversed the House of Representatives' move to use a simple majority instead of a double majority to make it easier for referendums on constitutional amendments to pass.
The Senate's move was believed to be backed by the Bhumjaithai Party, considering that more than half of the senators are labelled as having a "blue" affiliation. Blue is the colour of Bhumjaithai.
Sometime later, Bhumjaithai abstained from voting to reject the Senate's decision "for the sake of being thorough". The disagreement over the size of the majority required for charter referendums to pass is set to be resolved by a joint House-Senate committee.
In the meantime, the Khao Kradong land controversy in Buri Ram, Bhumjaithai's political stronghold, has emerged, with observers suggesting that the dispute between the State Railway of Thailand (SRT) and the Department of Lands (DoL) could escalate into open conflict and strain relations between the two partners.
This is because the SRT is under the supervision of Transport Minister Suriya Jungrungreangkit of Pheu Thai, while the DoL is overseen by Interior Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, leader of the Bhumjaithai Party.
Additionally, the Chidchob family, which runs several businesses, including the Buriram International Circuit and a 32,600-seat football stadium, is reportedly linked to the controversy.
The dispute centres on land plots totalling 5,083 rai in the Khao Kradong area of Muang district of Buri Ram. The SRT is seeking to reclaim these plots, accusing the DoL of malfeasance for issuing land papers to illegal occupants.
The SRT filed a case with the Administrative Court in September 2021 demanding the DoL revoke its 900 land title deeds and remove all occupants from its property after the Supreme Court stated that the land belonged to the SRT in 2021. Of the 900 land title deeds, 12, which cover 179 rai, reportedly belonged to the Chidchob family.
The Administrative Court ruled in the SRT's favour, and the DoL set up a committee under Section 61 of the Land Code to examine the boundaries of Khao Kradong following the court's order.
The DoL committee resolved not to revoke the land documents, while the SRT took swift action by appealing the DoL decision on the orders of Mr Suriya, sparking speculation about the possibility of a renewed conflict between the two biggest coalition partners.
However, key figures from both parties, especially Mr Anutin, have brushed aside speculation about the state agencies' dispute escalating into open conflict between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai.
According to Mr Anutin, the agencies involved are simply doing their job, and the DoL's handling of the Khao Kradong land complies with the law.
He noted that he could not answer all the questions about Khao Kradong because he did not ask the DoL for specifics, as doing so might be seen as pressuring the department.
Addressing the question that some members of the land boundary examination committee have ties to the Chidchob family, Mr Anutin explained that the panel was established in May 2023 when he served as the public health minister in the Prayut Chan-o-cha administration. He did not become interior minister until Srettha Thavisin became premier months later.
He pointed out that the Interior Ministry during the Prayut Chan-o-cha government was run by Gen Anupong Paojinda and that he could not possibly exert influence on Gen Anupong.
"If you let things be politicised at every turn, it will be chaotic like this.
"Some people criticise me for contradicting Mr Suriya, who insisted that the SRT can't lose the land. What he [Mr Suriya] said is 100% correct ... similar to what I said about Koh Kut," he said, referring to the ongoing territorial claim dispute with Cambodia.
When asked if the Khao Kradong land controversy is being turned into a political game following earlier Pheu Thai-Bhumjaithai tensions, the Bhumjaithai leader said the coalition partners are politically mature, and there was no point in seeking revenge.