The spotlight last week returned to the charter rewrite bid spearheaded by the ruling Pheu Thai Party and the main opposition People's Party (PP).
As widely speculated, the attempt failed to see any progress made.
After two consecutive days, the joint sitting of MPs and senators deliberating a proposed change to Section 256 of the 2017 charter to pave the way for the creation of a charter drafting assembly (CDA) collapsed due to a lack of quorum.
The present military-sponsored constitution was designed to be difficult to amend, and requiring support from one-third of senators for an amendment to pass is one of the two biggest hurdles.
The other is the deep division within the coalition government exposed by an orchestrated lack of quorum, a tactic used to prevent outright failure but also often creating insurmountable delays to an already lengthy process.
Pheu Thai MP Sutin Klungsang admitted the party feared its bill would be rejected by the Constitutional Court ruling and therefore deliberately skipped the meetings to prevent a quorum from being met.
Given these two obstacles, the only way to ensure the success of a charter rewrite is for the cabinet to sponsor the bill, signalling the cooperation of the Bhumjaithai Party and its "blue faction" in the Senate.
Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul insisted his party was not attempting to obstruct Pheu Thai's bid to draft a new constitution but was merely adhering to the court's ruling.
The court ruled in 2021 that the public must first decide via a referendum whether they want a new charter.
The referendum law has yet to be enacted due to a mandatory cooling-off period.
An attempt to seek a fresh court ruling to address legal concerns is expected by the ruling party, but there is no guarantee the court will issue a new ruling.
In April last year, the court rejected a petition asking it to rule on whether parliament can put a proposed charter amendment motion on its agenda for deliberation. The judges said they had already ruled on the matter.
The PP and critics argue that filing a new petition is a waste of time and insist the charter amendment process should proceed without seeking further judicial review.
Political move, or sincere push?
Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science expert at Rangsit University, said Pheu Thai knows the charter rewrite campaign is unlikely to succeed and is attempting to shift responsibility to others, particularly Bhumjaithai.
The ruling party has opted to stall the process to maintain its support base, specifically those who favour a complete overhaul of the constitution, and prevent losing to the PP, he said.
Bhumjaithai and the blue faction in Senate have been handed a political hot potato, he said, but added the coalition partner must have weighed the risk and determined that staying out of the process is the safest bet.
"Bhumjaithai has taken the lead in opposing the rewrite process by refusing to participate. The key question now is whether other coalition partners will follow suit.
"If they do, Pheu Thai will no longer be able to pass the problem to its allies and may have no choice but to wait until the next election," he said.
The fact the charter rewrite bill was not proposed by the cabinet reflects lingering disagreements between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai, which fully understands the chances of the proposal passing in a referendum are slim.
"Bhumjaithai has read the game well as it is a move that looks good politically," Mr Wanwichit said.
Bhumjaithai appears to be in a better position, he said, and a charter rewrite was unlikely to succeed under the Pheu Thai-led government.
Wanwichit: Pheu Thai will pass buck
Wholesale, or modest change?
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok's Institute, said the court will be asked to weigh in on whether the amendment process is constitutional.
Still, it remains unclear whether the court will interpret the move as an amendment or a rewrite, given that the bills, backed by Pheu Thai and the PP, target Section 256, he said.
"If they are serious about it, they should seek public approval first.
"But now the bills are on the agenda, and if they pass the first reading before a referendum is held, there will be issues... such as what happens if the process is already underway and the public rejects it?" he said.
Mr Stithorn said another concern lies with the Senate, especially the blue faction which opposes wholesale revision.
However, he said Pheu Thai's main purpose in the charter amendment campaign is not about getting a new charter, but rather loosening the amendment process so the party can push for section-by-section changes on the issues it prioritises.
And even if this bid fails, the party can still send a message to the public that it has done its best, yet could do little when faced with a Senate hostile to the change, he added.
A rewrite is likely to be a long way off for the PP because it lacks support in parliament to advance its agenda, Mr Stithorn said.
The party will send a message to the public that it needs to secure a decisive victory in the next election to see a constitution rewrite materialise, he added.
"Unless the government and the Senate are united, the chances of having a new charter before the next polls are very slim.
Stithorn: Court to have final say
"The reality is the process is getting nowhere because the bills seek to curb the Senate's powers," he said.
