The People's Party (PP) winning the Lamphun provincial administrative organisation (PAO) presidency election on Feb 2 comes with a raft of tough challenges, according to critics.
The main opposition party had a long wait to capture its first PAO chief post following a series of defeats in earlier polls in other provinces where the incumbents had resigned to trigger early elections.
Despite mobilising its resources, best talent and popular figures for campaign rallies, the party was only served up with bitter losses.
Academics and political scientists have explained that voting patterns in local polls are different from general elections as the entire province is a single constituency. Whereas, provinces are divided into several constituencies in general elections, depending on the size of the provincial population.
Critics, however, say the PP had both disadvantages and advantages in the PAO contests.
The party should have found it easy to rouse its supporters, especially in provinces where it performed impressively in the general election. Assuming its support bases in various constituencies in a given province remained intact, PP voters who stayed loyal to the party should have come out in force and handed it a resounding victory.
This was not the case in the Feb 2 PAO polls, as well as the earlier races, except in Lamphun, where PP was given a major break.
On Feb 2, the PP won a single PAO chief poll out of 17 provinces where it fielded candidates. The small northern province neighbouring Chiang Mai also reported the highest turnout of 73% to elect a PAO president and provincial councillors.
The Lamphun victory had PP executives and its faithful jumping for joy. From this has come a grand scheme to turn Lamphun into a development model since the province is its first experiment with local administration.
A political source said Lamphun may also be the PP's only chance to prove its worth ahead of the next general election in a little over two years.
Neither the PP nor its predecessor, the Move Forward Party, has had complete control over a public administration.
In fact, the PP, led by Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, has lost no time in devising the so-called "Lamphun model" to be implemented as far as overhauling public utilities is concerned. The party has vowed to make good on its poll promise to provide a system of potable water across the province.
However, the critics argued drinkable tap water should not be an immediate priority for Lamphun, which is a predominantly rural community. Such a policy would better suit the needs of urban residents.
The PP, according to the critics, needs to change its mindset that revolves around challenges in cities and work harder to formulate plans that address upcountry problems.
The party celebrated its hard-fought win in Lamphun, with an impression created that its successful candidate, Weeradej Pupisit, single-handedly waged a battle against a powerful local scion and rode high on the PP's popularity. However, the source said this myth needs to be busted.
For starters, Mr Weeradej's family is no stranger to politics. In fact, the Pupisit family is recognised as a powerful political force in the province. Mr Weeradej's father, Prasert, is a former Lamphun PAO president and current president of the Lamphun chamber of commerce.
According to unofficial results, the 39-year-old candidate defeated four-time winner Anusorn Wongwan of the ruling Pheu Thai Party.
The source said Mr Anusorn may have underestimated his rival or was ill-prepared to fight the election. Complacency could have run high as Lamphun has been a traditional Pheu Thai stronghold.
In any event, the PP appears poised to hit the ground running in its bid to implement its Lamphun model.
The province will be a formidable political experiment, and the main opposition party cannot afford to see it fail.
All eyes will be on how well the party can straighten out affairs in the province now that it has full administrative authority at its disposal. In other words, the Lamphun PAO is being seen as a test of the party's credentials to lead a national government and how effective or ineffective it can be in serving the province and population.
If the "lab test" turns out a success, it is bound to give the PP a great deal to capitalise on. The party would then be expected to significantly expand its support bases and win by a landslide in the 2027 general election.
However, a failed Lamphun model would be extremely damaging to the party's image and popularity. Neither the PP nor its predecessors, the Future Forward Party and the Move Forward Party before it, has ever been in a government, let alone run one.
Such a lack of experience does not necessarily work against the party. With zero experience of national mismanagement, many will be disposed to give the party a chance at governance.
The Lamphun experiment may give voters a glimpse of what is to come if the PP goes on to win the next general election.
Reluctance to reform exposed?
The failure of joint parliamentary meetings over two consecutive days to debate charter amendments has exposed the intense political manoeuvring behind the charter reform process, according to political observers.
Thaksin: Could have lobbied
Two proposals seeking to amend Section 256 of the constitution to establish a charter drafting assembly to write a new constitution are at the centre of the debate. One was put forth by the ruling Pheu Thai Party, while the other was sponsored by the main opposition People's Party (PP).
MPs from the Bhumjaithai Party, a government coalition member, staged walkouts. According to party heavyweights, boycotting the meetings looked to avoid breaching the constitution, which could potentially lead to the party's dissolution.
Their concerns stemmed from a 2021 Constitutional Court ruling that said a referendum must first determine whether the public wants a new constitution. However, the referendum law remains in limbo, pending a cooling-off period.
A headcount for the first meeting revealed only 204 parliamentarians were present -- less than half of the combined MPs and senators required for a quorum. At least half of all 500 MPs and 200 senators must be present to meet the threshold.
At the second meeting, a headcount was conducted again, but only 175 members identified themselves as being present, forcing the meeting to be adjourned.
Despite this, the draft proposals remain intact and can be deliberated when conditions are more favourable, according to Pheu Thai MP Sutin Klungsang.
Pheu Thai deliberately skipped the sessions to prevent a quorum, fearing its bill would be struck down due to potential problems because of the court's ruling, he said, adding the party would seek a fresh ruling from the Constitutional Court to determine a proper course of action.
"We must take a detour and ask the court to issue a clear ruling on the referendum process to address legal concerns," Mr Sutin said.
However, the move has fuelled scepticism among political observers, who doubt the ruling party's commitment to pushing for reform.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University, said Pheu Thai is merely playing for time rather than genuinely trying to fulfil its election pledges for charter reform.
Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the party's alleged de facto leader, could have easily lobbied the Bhumjaithai Party, which is known to have allies in the Senate, to support the amendment bid.
He noted that charter amendments require the support of one-third of the Senate, or about 70 senators, and Bhumjaithai is believed to have influence over more than half of the 200-member Senate.
With the constitution saying a charter amendment bill requires the support of one-third of the Senate to pass, rather than a simple majority, Senate approval is a must.
According to Mr Olarn, charter reform was used as a campaign promise to gain support in the previous election.
However, two years have passed, and the effort to make changes has made little headway.
Several parliamentary committees were established to study the issue, yet the public appears to have no interest or no understanding as to why charter changes are necessary, he said.
The current bid is a far cry from the reform movement that led to the 1997 charter, Mr Olarn noted.
"At that time, politicians opposed the change, but the charter drafters successfully created an atmosphere that raised public awareness. As a result, politicians did not dare to resist, and the country had one of its best versions of the charter," he said.
In his view, Pheu Thai is stalling because it has other priorities and does not want a direct confrontation with the conservative camp, which is known to oppose charter revision.
He said the PP, which strongly advocates a charter rewrite, is not particularly skilled at political manoeuvring. As a result, hopes of seeing a new charter before the next election have all but vanished.
With the PP as an ally on this issue, passing the amendment should have been a walk in the park, with a strong parliamentary majority from a combined vote between the PP and Pheu Thai. But Pheu Thai has failed to keep tabs on Bhumjaithai and is now struggling to deflect blame for the collapse of the two meetings, Mr Olarn said.
He said the next thing to watch is the possibility of the ruling party working with "reserve senators" to petition for an investigation into last year's Senate election.
A total of 200 senators were elected from 20 professional groups, with shortlisted reserves.
The Election Commission (EC) is facing calls to step up its investigations into election complaints or hand them over to the Department of Special Investigation (DSI).
The move aims to turn the Senate from "blue", the colour associated with Bhumjaithai, to "red", the colour of the ruling party, and make it easier to advance a political agenda, he said.
Currently, Bhumjaithai is believed to have the upper hand due to its ties with the Senate.
"If there are more red-affiliated senators, Pheu Thai will have an easier time and can make a stronger showing in the next election.
"Any attempt to amend the charter after the next election will be easier, as there is no chance of success during the current parliamentary term," he said.