On the surface, the ruling Pheu Thai Party and coalition partner Bhumjaithai Party may be getting along. However, underneath, an eruption is waiting to happen, according to several observers.
Pheu Thai has been trying to undermine its largest coalition partner and prominent Bhumjaithai figures for some time.
Despite Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul's repeated insistence that the party will rally behind Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra in the upcoming no-confidence debate on Monday, the atmosphere within the government is thick with distrust, according to one observer.
Critics allege that Pheu Thai's bid to deliver a political assault on Bhumjaithai at every turn may have eased after the opposition announced Ms Paetongtarn would be its lone censure debate target.
The observer said Ms Paetongtarn being singled out is clearly indicative of the opposition's belief the premier is the government's weakest link and that toppling her will prompt a change of administration.
For weeks, who among the cabinet ministers would be targeted for a grilling was the subject of heavy speculation. Quite a few names were floated, including Mr Anutin who is a deputy prime minister and the interior minister.
At the same time, there was no let-up in Bhumjaithai taking a battering, starting with Mr Anutin, who found himself at the centre of an alleged land grab in Nakhon Ratchasima.
Last month, the Agriculture and Cooperatives Minister's Advisory Committee expanded its investigation into land encroachment in Pak Chong district near Khao Yai National Park.
That included the Rancho Charnvee Resort and Country Club, the golf course owned by Mr Anutin's family.
Thanadol Suwannarit, an adviser to the agriculture and cooperatives minister, said the team inspected three sites in the district.
The committee also visited Rancho Charnvee. Mr Thanadol said the land was obtained legally with the title deed, but he must check the timeline to confirm whether it was issued legally and whether some part of the land is located in the Agricultural Land Reform Office's land reform area.
Mr Anutin insisted his acquisition of the resort land was above board and that he welcomed the scrutiny. However, he suspected the probe may have been politically motivated and accused whoever may be pulling the strings of being a coward.
The Agriculture Ministry is overseen by the Kla Dharma Party, whose patriarch, Capt Thamanat Prompow, used to be a leading Pheu Thai politician and has retained close ties to the ruling party. Kla Dharma broke away from the Palang Pracharath Party and became the latest member to join the Paetongtarn administration.
The source said a theory, which cannot be dismissed, is that one party -- understood to be a reference to Kla Dharma -- must prove its "worth" and demonstrate its loyalty by undertaking a certain task in exchange for a bigger share of cabinet seats.
While the dust has yet to settle over the Rancho Charnvee saga, the Senate has been spooked by the Department of Special Investigation (DSI)'s probe into alleged collusion in last year's multi-tiered Senate elections among professional groups. If such collusion can be proven in a court of law, many senators stand to lose their seats.
Many of those at risk were said to be the "blue-affiliated" senators. Blue is the colour of Bhumjaithai.
These senators have taken positions over contentious legislative issues that are aligned to Bhumjaithai, but which are contradictory to Pheu Thai, such as charter amendment and referendum bills.
With Bhumjaithai consistently striking a chord with the blue senators, the party commands vast and growing power within parliament, naturally leaving Pheu Thai chagrined, according to the observer.
The observer said it would not be surprising to expect intense manoeuvring to peg back Bhumjaithai, which has now emerged as the preferred party for many conservative voters impressed by Bhumjaithai's staunch defence of their political and social values.
The probe into the Senate polls has threatened to land the DSI in hot water for overstepping its mark. The Election Commission has asserted it is the sole authority in investigating election-related irregularities, and the Council of State, the government's legal arm, has also expressed reservations about the DSI's involvement in the Senate poll case.
As the Rancho Charnvee fiasco and the Senate poll probe are far from conclusive, Bhumjaithai also faces another headache with the government mulling whether to terminate the contract to host the MotoGP Grand Prix if the race is deemed not investment-worthy.
The race has been held at Chang International Circuit in Buri Ram since 2018. The northeastern province has long been a political bastion of Bhumjaithai.
The government's plan to end its sponsorship of the MotoGP Grand Prix event could send the sporting empire built by Newin Chidchob, labelled as the de facto leader of Bhumjaithai, into a tailspin.
However, Bhumjaithai's fortunes could take a twist with the censure debate.
With the opposition zeroing in on Ms Paetongtarn in the debate, concern is mounting that the pressure could overwhelm her. If she comes out of the grilling in bad shape, the coalition partners could be compelled to decide whether to continue supporting her or cast a no-confidence vote against her.
If Ms Paetongtarn fails to win enough votes, her premiership will be over, and a new government will be formed, with Mr Anutin most probably coming across as a strong choice among the remaining PM candidates.
However, Mr Anutin has vowed to back Ms Paetongtarn. The observer said the pledge, which would prevent the axe falling on the premier, could see Bhumjaithai's problems recede and the party having the last laugh.
About to go head-to-head
Thaksin: Hits back at the PP
The no-confidence debate against Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is now all but certain after former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's name was omitted from the censure motion.
Whether the debate would take place was uncertain as House Speaker Wan Muhamad Noor Matha had warned the opposition not to name an outsider if it wanted the censure debate to go ahead as planned.
According to Mr Wan, directly referring to an outsider would violate parliamentary meeting regulation No.176 and could expose him and other lawmakers to defamation lawsuits from outsiders.
In its original motion solely targeting Ms Paetongtarn, the main opposition People's Party (PP) directly accused her father, Thaksin, of exerting influence over his daughter's administration. In the revised motion, Thaskin's name is replaced with a broader term "a family member".
Outside parliament, Thaksin has wasted no time in hitting back at the PP.
When asked about the accusation that he is acting as a political puppet master, the alleged de facto leader of the ruling Pheu Thai Party shot back: "I must ask whether they [PP members] have consulted the founder of the [now-dissolved] Future Forward Party (FFP) before deciding to grill [the prime minister] over this accusation."
The FFP disbanded over an illegal loan it obtained from its founder and leader Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, was the predecessor of the Move Forward Party, which reincarnated upon its dissolution into the PP.
When pressed to elaborate, Thaksin mentioned the PP's recent win in the provincial administrative organisation election (PAO) in Lamphun, alluding to Mr Thanathorn's involvement in the poll campaign.
Mr Thanathorn is now chairman of the Progressive Movement which has links with both the dissolved MFP and PP, whose candidate Weeradet Pupisit, became the party's only victor in a PAO chairman election.
According to observers, Thaksin's remarks are no off-the-cuff comments and are intended to discredit the main opposition party by implying that Pheu Thai and the PP are no different.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University, said Thaksin's message is quite clear that both parties are controlled by behind-the-scene figures and if PP lawmakers are questioning his role, they should first check with their own "real leader".
Since his return from self-exile abroad, Thaksin's performance in leading the neo-conservative camp appears to have fallen short of expectations as he is unable to reduce the PP's popularity and eliminate it as a threat to the conservative bloc, said the analyst.
Former prime minister Srettha Thavisin and Ms Paetongtarn, despite backing from coalition partners, have struggled to deliver results, particularly compared to the Bhumjaithai Party and its allies in the Senate.
Mr Olarn credited Bhumjaithai under the leadership of Anutin Charnvirakul, who is a deputy prime minister and the interior minister, and "blue faction" senators for their role in fending off efforts to rewrite the 2017 constitution.
Thaksin, therefore, has little choice but to "stage a public showdown" with the PP, he said, adding that the opposition party must also play its part. Moreover, for its own survival, the PP must position itself as the lesser evil, portraying the red camp, or Pheu Thai, as the greater threat.
Some 44 former MPs of the now-defunct MFP, who are now with the PP, are accused of supporting a proposal to amend Section 112 of the Criminal Code, or the lese majeste law. The case is being reviewed by the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) and if the court accepts the case, 25 current PP lawmakers could be suspended from parliamentary duty.
"With that in mind, the PP must prove its worth and avoid this fate," he said.
The analyst noted that the upcoming no-confidence debate is a high-stakes game for the PP. If the party's grilling falls flat, it will only confirm speculation about the "Hong Kong deal". The deal involves a meeting that supposedly took place in Hong Kong between powerful political actors labelled as the real movers behind Pheu Thai and MFP.
It was reported that the meeting brought up the possibility of the MFP one day replacing the conservative bloc in the Pheu Thai-led coalition if and when the latter was to be ditched.
"If the PP fails to deliver in the debate, it will add credibility to the rumoured deal between Thaksin and Mr Thanathorn in Hong Kong.
"The opposition must give its best shot [in the censure debate], and anything less could fuel the claim of a backroom agreement," he said.
For Pheu Thai, the strategy is to play both sides -- play a game of fight-and-make-up with the opposition while managing its alliance with Bhumjaithai, which has close ties with the Senate.
So, the real burden falls on Thaksin whose political manoeuvring will decide both the Pheu Thai Party's future and his daughter's political fate.