Paroled ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra's recent visit to Surin, one of the lower northeastern provinces, has raised questions about whether the region will become a key battleground in the next general election.
Thaksin went to Wat Suwan Wichit in the province's Prasat district on July 14 to preside over an ordination of 334 novice monks to celebrate the sixth cycle birthday anniversary of His Majesty the King.
While his visit was a religious one, it has drawn considerable attention to Surin, where the political landscape has changed following last year's polls.
The Pheu Thai Party dominated Surin in the 2019 polls. The party won five out of seven seats, with the two other seats split between the Bhumjaithai Party and the Palang Pracharath Party.
But in last year's general election, Pheu Thai lost ground to Bhumjaithai, whose influence extended beyond Buri Ram, the party's "political capital".
Bhumjaithai captured five out of eight seats available, while Pheu Thai's share was reduced to three seats.
Thaksin has toured several provinces since he was released on parole almost six months ago. Among his first was Chiang Mai, his home province, where the party lost to the main opposition Move Forward Party (MFP).
Given his status as the de-facto leader of Pheu Thai, political observers agreed his trip to Surin, once a bastion for the ruling party, is part of the party's strategy to regain local support.
Waning political clout
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University, told the Bangkok Post that Thaksin has to reconnect with various political families to help him restore Pheu Thai's election glory for at least two reasons.
Since his return to Thailand in August, Thaksin's credibility and image as "Tony", a man of vision and a leader of change, has been ruined. He has never spent a day in jail and is widely perceived as the one pulling the strings behind the Pheu Thai-led government.
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin's popularity has dwindled since the government's formation and so has that of Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra, Thaksin's youngest daughter and political heir.
Pheu Thai's key figures like Phumtham Wechayachai, Dr Prommin Lertsuridej and Dr Cholnan Srikaew have become politically bankrupt. This forces Thaksin to step back into a more prominent role and reestablish connections with influential political families across the country.
However, building a political alliance is no walk in the park unless Thaksin can secure the interests and protection of those he seeks to ally with, Mr Olarn said.
"Thaksin is known to treat his network of allies as employees, which is different from Bhumjaithai, which is known to treat them as partners. These partners are guaranteed a four-year stay [in the cabinet]. It is different from Thaksin who reshuffles cabinet often," he said.
Mr Olarn said unless Thaksin changes his approach, he will not be able to lure political families to his fold. Additionally, Pheu Thai's party-list system can be divided into two groups: financiers and widely-recognised figures. If the party fails to attract high-profile figures with credentials, it will face an uphill battle to win party-list seats.
Mr Olarn said the delay in introducing the digital wallet scheme, the party's flagship policy, has caused a dent in the party's credibility and can potentially affect its election odds.
Olarn: Allies as 'employees'
Battling two foes
Prathueng Muang-on, a political scientist at Ubon Ratchathani University, told the Bangkok Post that Thaksin is aware of the waning popularity of the ruling party in the lower part of the northeast. In 2019, Pheu Thai won seven out of 10 seats, but in last year's elections, the number of seats shrank to four despite 11 seats being up for grabs.
The ruling party has lost ground to the Bhumjaithai Party, whose influence is rising in Ubon Ratchathani and Amnat Charoen. The coalition partner not only almost made a clean sweep, but its candidates also left the rivals far behind in the race.
Mr Prathueng said Pheu Thai has two battles to fight: the constituency system against the Bhumjaithai Party and the rising popularity of the opposition MFP. "In the lower northeast, Bhumjaithai is likely to gain more seats from the constituency system. The popularity of the MFP, [which is reflected] in the party-list system, is also rising," he said.
In the 2019 polls, the number of seats in the lower northeast won by the Pheu Thai Party and the Bhumjaithai Party accounted for 70% of total seats. As for the party-list system, the number of votes garnered by Pheu Thai and MFP also accounted for 70% of total votes.
Knowing it has a slim chance in the party-list system, Bhumjaithai will focus all resources in the constituency system and use its extensive networks of local officials and health volunteers to its advantage, Mr Prathueng said.
He said that Pheu Thai's decline in popularity was not a sudden drop, but a gradual one. This could be attributed to two possible factors: the party did not mobilise sufficient resources compared with Bhumjaithai and the party had nothing to show off because it had been away from being a ruling party of the government for a long time.
Mr Prathueng said the political landscape in the region has shifted and the chance of the Pheu Thai Party dominating is slim, especially in urban areas. He noted the red shirt movement, which was once the party's core support group, has weakened.
"All indicates that Pheu Thai will become smaller while Bhumjaithai will expand. Its popularity is being eclipsed by the MFP. When Thaksin and his daughter made a visit, the crowd waiting to greet them was conspicuously small," said Mr Prathueng, who is in charge of the university's opinion polls.
Prathueng: Move Forward 'on the rise'
Pheu Thai's spiritual leader
Krumanit Sangphum, a Pheu Thai MP for Surin, said Thaksin's active role in the party will bolster local support and give more confidence to the party candidates.
He said Thaksin is respected by the party members and has made a significant contribution to the country. With Thaksin's vision and young generations of politicians led by his daughter, Pheu Thai will be stronger, he said.
Asked about possible attempts to regain influence in the region, Mr Krumanit said it takes two factors to win in the constituency system: good policy and devoted candidates.
"With an effective strategy, we can gain more seats in the lower northeastern region. But for Buri Ram, the [stronghold] of Bhumjaithai, it is beyond reach. Other than that, we can penetrate and regain footing," he said.
Bhumjaithai made a clean sweep of 10 seats in Buri Ram under Newin Chidchob, the de facto leader of Bhumjaithai. However, he said Thaksin's July 14 visit had no political implications.
"Thaksin has connections with the province since he became the prime minister. He took a Nok Khamin tour here and helped push several local projects. I think he just wanted to visit local people [after a long absence]," he said.
Krumanit: Buri Ram 'beyond reach'
Thaksin made a series of trips, known as the Nok Khamin tour, upcountry when he was in power.
Dr Cherdchai Tantisirin, a Pheu Thai MP and red-shirt leader, said efforts are underway to reunite red-shirt members who still have faith in the movement and its core belief.
During its peak, the movement threw its support behind Thaksin, drawn either by Thaksin's charisma or the benefits afforded to them by his government's populist policies. However, in recent years many were wooed away with similar policies by other parties or became disillusioned.
"We must reunite and reconnect. If we don't, we lose," Dr Cherdchai said.
The number of red-shirt members has dropped to 30% and it needs to be shored up to at least 50%, he said.
Asked about Thaksin's release next month, he said Thaksin remains admired by red-shirt members and will help unify the movement and restore confidence among the Pheu Thai Party's supporters.
Unwavering Bhumjaithai
Sanong Thep-aksonnarong, a Bhumjaithai MP for Buri Ram, brushed off Thaksin's visit to Surin, saying his presence did not bother the party.
He suggested Thaksin find an opportunity to visit Chiang Mai to gauge the public sentiments there after the Pheu Thai lost ground to the MFP.
Asked about the red-shirt movement in the region, the Bhumjaithai MP said the members are loosely connected and the movement is not a significant concern.
"Bhumjaithai is actively involved with the people, so Thaksin's presence won't affect our support base. We keep doing our job and that's all," he said.
Mr Sanong also welcomed Thaksin's plan to take up more tasks after his release next month if his work was in the public interest.
During the Surin visit, Thaksin said he would start to "take up more roles" to deliver results for the public in August, though he did not explain the roles. It is widely believed that Thaksin will assist the government after he completes his jail term.
Among the roles he can assume are an adviser to the prime minister and a special representative in a specific task, which must be only temporary, according to Wissanu Krea-ngam, the prime minister's legal adviser.
Sanong: Unfazed by Thaksin's visits