The decision to nominate Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra as the new prime minister signals that Thaksin Shinawatra, the party's de facto leader, will go all out to rebuild a support base to fend off the People's Party (PP), according to a political analyst.
Widely seen as politically inexperienced, Ms Paetongtarn, 37, on Friday won overwhelming support from the House of Representatives to succeed Srettha Thavisin, who was removed from office by the Constitutional Court.
After allying with the conservative parties to form a government last year, Pheu Thai has come to represent what is believed to be a new conservative force that could stand up to the PP, a reincarnation of the progressive Move Forward Party that was dissolved on Aug 7.
Direct challenge
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at the King Prajadhipok's Institute, said Ms Paetongtarn's rise to power suggests the conservative camp is sticking to its strategy of countering the main opposition party, but this time without relying on a proxy.
It was reported earlier that key coalition figures met at Thaksin's Ban Chan Song La residence on Charan Sanitwong Road in Bangkok on Wednesday evening and agreed to choose Chaikasem Nitisiri, 75, a former justice minister and attorney-general for the top post.
However, on Thursday the Pheu Thai executive board selected Ms Paetongtarn as the party's candidate.
Mr Stithorn said this move is Pheu Thai's last chance to shore up support among voters and regain lost ground. But if the party fails, it may no longer be seen as the best choice to lead the political fight against the PP and a new strategy will be needed.
"This move must work. And the government will have to tread even more carefully, especially when handling issues with potential legal pitfalls. It'd be better not to irk the conservative camp," he said.
Mr Stithorn also said the political climate will intensify from now on due to high expectations, especially with a prime minister from the Shinawatra family.
With local elections around the corner, the contest will be fierce, and parties will use this chance to strengthen their support base ahead of the next general election, he said.
Ms Paetongtarn is the third member of the Shinawatra family to hold the post following Thaksin and his sister Yingluck. Thaksin's brother-in-law Somchai Wongsawat also served as prime minister briefly in 2008.
"They must counter the popularity [of the PP] and retain support from Ban Yai, or political families. The local elections will see a fierce contest between Pheu Thai, the Bhumjaithai Party and the PP, so we can expect intense politics," Mr Stithorn said.
Stithorn: Conservatives want to counter PP
Weak opposition
A source in the Chartthaipattana Party said Ms Paetongtarn is considered a "safe" choice in the current political situation, where the opposition is weak and in transition.
Moreover, the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) is investigating the conduct of 44 former MPs of the now-dissolved MFP who supported a bill to revise Section 112 of the Criminal Code, also known as the lese majeste law.
The source said when the opposition is perceived as weak, it is time to act and choose the most suitable person for the premiership.
With Ms Paetongtarn in office, her key man will be none other than the "former leader" -- implied to be Thaksin -- and a fresh approach is necessary, he added.
Pushing Ms Paetongtarn into the prime minister's position signals the fight against the People's Party will be a high-stakes contest, said the source.
As for Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul, the source said Mr Anutin is unlikely to take on the role of the leader of the conservative camp at this moment.
Adisorn Piengkes, a Pheu Thai list MP, said that both the government and the opposition must re-evaluate their strategy because both have recently suffered political setbacks, referring to the court rulings that dissolved the MFP and removed Mr Srettha from office just one week apart.
He expressed confidence in the party leader's ability and potential, saying she would be able to weather any political storms coming her way with advice from her father and party figures.
Mr Adisorn said the party did not intend to go into a political war with the PP when nominating its leader as the prime minister but rather to fulfil its commitment made during the election campaign.
He added Ms Paetongtarn can help shore up the party's popularity.
Asked about the party's flagship digital wallet policy, he said the new government will make a decision, adding he hopes it will be as meaningful as the universal healthcare programme.
Adisorn: Expresses confidence in Paetongtarn
Positive signs
The Thai Chamber of Commerce (TCC) welcomed the swift decision to nominate Ms Paetongtarn as it could help restore confidence in the country, and as soon as the legal process is completed, it could further enhance such confidence.
Sanan Angubolkul, chairman of the Thai Chamber of Commerce, said the prime minister's age does not matter as much as whether she can demonstrate leadership and the ruling party has the necessary resources to implement policies.
He also said the private sector hopes to see a more collaborative approach from the coalition government under her leadership to ensure stability and unity. The TCC also outlined key areas for the government to focus on in the short term.
First of all, the government should maintain the stability of the Thai baht, which will support the export sector and boost the growth of the tourism industry.
It is important to keep the momentum of tourist arrivals to achieve the target of 36–37 million visitors. This can be achieved by introducing new tourist sites, enhancing safety and proceeding with a plan to promote investments in 10 pilot provinces.
Other areas include penetrating new markets to help export expansion, accelerating the disbursement of funds for the 2024 fiscal year, introducing measures to alleviate economic hardship and protecting producers from an influx of inexpensive goods from overseas.
Mr Sanan also called on the new government to carry on the Srettha government's policies to boost trade and attract foreign investments. He said a specific ministry should be assigned to follow up on policies.
He also said the government should continue to drive the soft power agenda and promote projects to add value to the economy. However, he said the country also needs to improve its labour skills to draw opportunities in digital technology, address high energy costs and amend outdated laws that hinder investments.
Thailand's GDP is growing at an average rate of about 2%, which is below its potential. To address this, the government needs a medium and long-term strategy to boost GDP growth to at least 3–5%, said Mr Sanan.
Sanan: New PM's age does not matter