Udon Thani polls a litmus test for Pheu Thai

Thaksin Shinawatra campaigns for votes in Udon Thani on Nov 14. (Photo: Pheu Thai Party)

The upcoming Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) chairman election in Udon Thani will be a test of the political strength and popularity of the ruling Pheu Thai Party and opposition People's Party (PP) ahead of the election in 2027, political observers say.

The parties are determined to secure a victory in the poll, with both enlisting political heavyweights to help their candidates campaign for the election.

Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, the father of prime minister and Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra, helped Pheu Thai's candidate, Sarawut Petchpanomporn, in a campaign rally in Udon Thani on Nov 13–14. He is widely believed to be Pheu Thai's de facto leader.

Addressing about 5,000 people during a campaign rally in Udon Thani's Muang district on Nov 14, Thaksin urged residents to vote for Pheu Thai's candidate.

Thaksin told the crowd he will not settle for anything less than a landslide victory.

Thaksin is also expected to attend rallies in Surin on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Some analysts said Pheu Thai is determined to re-assert its dominance in Udon Thani.

In last year's election, the party, which usually secures a clean sweep of Udon Thani -- its political stronghold -- was defeated in three out of 10 constituencies. The MFP took a seat, while the Thai Sang Thai Party won two.

Meanwhile, the PP has the support of the dissolved Move Forward Party (MFP)'s former leader Pita Limjaroenrat, who flew back from the US to help Kanisorn Khurirang campaign for the Udon Thani seat.

Pita Limjaroenrat campaigns for the People's Party in Udon Thani on Sunday. (Photo: People's Party)

The MFP, which was dissolved for trying to subvert the constitutional monarchy, was reborn as the PP.

Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, chairman of the Progressive Movement, which has links with the MFP and the PP, also assisted PP's campaign in Udon Thani.

The PP is seeking to secure a win in the PAO poll so it can establish a political foothold in the province after suffering several defeats in other local elections.

The Udon Thani PAO chief poll was called after the incumbent Wichian Khaokham resigned just two months before the end of his tenure, citing health reasons.

The PAO chairman's election in Surin will take place on Nov 23, while in Udon Thani the polls are scheduled on Nov 24. The rest of the country, meanwhile, will hold their PAO election on Feb 1 next year, as their incumbents' tenure will not end until Dec 19. Applications will be accepted from Dec 23–27.

In addition to Surin and Udon Thani, 27 other provinces will not hold their PAO election in February, as their PAO officials either resigned before their term ends and as such have already held an election to find a replacement, or are in the process of holding an election.

Waning popularity

Prathuang Muang-on, a lecturer at Ubon Ratchathani University's political science faculty, told The Bangkok Post that Thaksin had to assist in Pheu Thai's campaign in Udon Thani to shore up the party's declining popularity as a result of its lacklustre policies.

"Unlike Thaksin's policies, such as the universal healthcare scheme, and the Village Fund, which were popular with the public, Paetongtarn administration's policies have so far failed to impress," Mr Prathuang said.

He added the government's 10,000-baht handout scheme, which was launched in September, only benefited vulnerable groups.

Somchai Pornrattanacharoen, president of the Thai Wholesale and Retail Trade Association, said earlier the first phase of the 10,000-baht cash handout did not stimulate the economy as much as expected, because many recipients used the money to pay off debt instead of spending it.

Mr Prathuang said Pheu Thai also faces tough competition from the Bhumjaithai Party in local elections.

"Even though Bhumjaithai did not field candidates to contest the PAO elections in some provinces, Bhumjaithai is believed to be secretly supporting Pheu Thai's rivals," Mr Prathuang said.

"In particular, Bhumjaithai wants to defeat candidates from the Kalptinan family on its own turf in the Ubon Ratchathani PAO chief poll on Dec 22", he said. The Kalptinan clan is a major power player in the province, with close ties with Pheu Thai. One of the family members, Kriang Kalptinan, was a former deputy Pheu Thai leader.

Red-shirts' capital

Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University in Chon Buri, told The Bangkok Post the contest between Pheu Thai and the PP in Udon Thani is a prelude to their upcoming clash in the 2027 general election.

"Udon Thani is the capital of the red-shirt movement, which is tied with Pheu Thai, so Thaksin had to step forward and reaffirm his ties with the red-shirts," Mr Olarn said.

"A victory in the PAO chief poll in Udon Thani will provide a platform for Pheu Thai to reassert its dominance in other major provinces in the Northeast, such as Ubon Ratchathani," he said, adding Thaksin is also trying to strengthen ties with political clans in several provinces to secure their support for Pheu Thai candidates.

Mr Olarn said that while Bhumjaithai is determined to win in local elections, it is ready to reach a compromise with Pheu Thai when it comes to national elections, as they have to work together to stop the PP from coming to power.

"Both parties may have to reach a power-sharing deal after the 2027 general election and only Thaksin has what it takes to broker such a deal," Mr Olarn.

"Moreover, Thaksin's visit to Udon Thani reassured the red-shirts they will not be left behind and will be looked after. If Pheu Thai wins in the PAO chief poll in Udon Thani, Thaksin may be asked to assist in campaigns for PAO elections in other provinces," Mr Olarn said.

Thaksin 'spiritual leader'

Korkaew Pikulthong, a red-shirt leader and a Pheu Thai list MP, said Thaksin's decision to extend his assistance to the Pheu Thai candidate for his campaign in Udon Thani showed his close bond with residents.

"His visit showed how important local residents are. It also showed that Pheu Thai is able to steer the province forward as the province has the potential for further growth and development," Mr Korkaew said.

"Thaksin is regarded as the spiritual leader of the red-shirts and Pheu Thai. With his help in the campaign, Pheu Thai's chance of defeat is zero. His supporters will turn out in large numbers in the poll," he said.

Keeping fingers crossed

Pol Maj Gen Supisarn Bhakdinarinath, a deputy leader of the PP, said it was reasonable that Thaksin assisted in the Pheu Thai's PAO campaign because Ms Paetongtarn, his daughter, has little experience in politics.

Pol Maj Gen Supisarn admitted Pheu Thai has the advantage over the PP in the PAO chief poll, though the PP is keeping its fingers crossed that the poll's outcome will turn out in its favour.

"If Pheu Thai loses in the PAO chief poll, it may also suffer a defeat in the next general election. If the PP wins in the PAO chief poll, this means the party can start to work towards establishing a firm political foothold in the Northeast," he said.

Parit Wacharasindhu, a PP list MP, said he was not surprised by Thaksin's move to help a Pheu Thai candidate campaign in the poll, given his relations with the ruling party.

"However, we are unfazed by the move. We are doing our best to present our policies to respond to the needs of residents and hope our candidate is elected and gets a chance to work for the people," he said.