Political observers appear to be on the same page that the path has been laid for fugitive former prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra to return home.
Former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's latest comments about the possible return of his sister in April next year have rekindled public attention about the issue.
Nikkei Asia on Monday published an interview Thaksin gave in Udon Thani province, where he helped campaign for a local election.
Thaksin was quoted as saying that he did not see any obstacles to her return, possibly during or just prior to the Songkran festival in April, depending on timing and opportunities.
Yingluck, 57, has been a fugitive since August 2017, when she failed to appear before the Supreme Court's Criminal Case Division for Holders of Political Positions for the reading of its ruling on a charge of dereliction of duty in a rice-pledging programme that ran up at least 500 billion baht in losses.
She was subsequently sentenced to five years in prison, and a warrant for her arrest in the rice-pledging case remains active.
Talks about her possible return began to gain momentum in March this year following the Supreme Court's failure to uphold the malfeasance and collusion case involving her government's 2-trillion-baht infrastructure projects. The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) decided not to appeal the ruling.
In December last year, the Supreme Court also acquitted her of malfeasance in relation to the 2011 transfer of a National Security Council secretary-general.
Furthermore, the NACC's investigations into cases stemming from her tenure have been terminated, intensifying speculation she is closer to returning home.
The only remaining obstacle is Yingluck's five-year jail term. The Bangkok Post spoke to analysts about the possible avenues Yingluck may pursue to the escape criminal penalty, including the "Thaksin's model" and an amnesty bill.
The road home
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, said a Yingluck return in April next year is not so far-fetched.
The fugitive former prime minister can follow the same course of action as Thaksin, who sought a royal pardon and was released on parole after six months of hospital detention, he said.
Department of Corrections (DoC) regulations regarding parole and the detention of inmates outside prison will benefit Yingluck, he said, noting the detention venue may even be announced before her arrival.
Mr Thanaporn said the DoC also has regulations in place concerning sentence reduction, meaning Yingluck's detention might be far shorter than five years.
"I don't think an amnesty law will be in effect by that time. Her return is likely to follow the model of the 'big boss' [Thaksin]. The DoC has the procedures in place that will be applied to others as well to avoid criticism," he said.
The academic said there are more than 100 others who will benefit from the DoC's regulations on the detention of inmates outside prison, and their families will be more than happy to accept the arrangement.
"If Yingluck meets the criteria, it's the end of the debate. Critics will keep nagging but that's also understandable," he said.
He said the justice minister, who oversees the DoC, will have to address all questions presented by the public over the matter.
Mr Thanaporn also said it remains to be seen how the ruling Pheu Thai Party will capitalise on Yingluck's situation to boost its popularity.
Asked about Thaksin's goal of Pheu Thai winning 200 MP seats in the next polls, he said the outcome of the election for the Udon Thani Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) chairman will be key.
The election, which takes place on Sunday, is a two-horse race between Pheu Thai and the main opposition People's Party (PP). Both parties sent their heavyweights to help canvass in the province.
Mr Thanaporn said the Pheu Thai Party must secure a landslide win, and anything less would signal that the party is losing its grip on this northeastern province, which is seen as the "capital" of the red-shirt group in the Northeast region.
With 80% of MPs in parliament representing Pheu Thai, the party will face a tough time ahead if it loses, as it must also compete with the Bhumjaithai Party, he added.
Thanaporn: Families will be happy
No amnesty expected
Pheu Thai list-MP Wisut Chainaroon said an amnesty law is unlikely to be in effect by April because the bills have made little progress.
Pheu Thai is expected to propose its own version of an amnesty bill and the issue must be brought before the party's strategic committee first to determine the party's position and direction, he said.
"There are four amnesty proposals to be submitted for the House review and the party will compare them with the party's strategy and decide on the direction it should take," he said.
While the party has yet to take an position on the amnesty, having it cover lese majeste offences is off the table, while political cases will be thoroughly considered, Mr Wisut insisted.
Besides internal discussions, Pheu Thai will have to hold talks with coalition partners, and the government cannot focus on one individual, Mr Wisut said.
Early this month, PM's Office Minister Chousak Sirinil said the party is expected to table an amnesty bill to parliament along with other versions from other parties on Dec 12 when the next parliament session starts.
Mr Chousak, who is also Pheu Thai's legal expert and head of the House committee studying an amnesty bill, said four other amnesty bills have been separately proposed by other parties.
Mr Wisut, who is also chief government whip, said Yingluck's possible return has not been discussed because MPs are back to work in their respective provinces during the parliament break.
He also rejected speculation Yingluck's return would strengthen the party and help it fend off the opposition PP.
"We're happy if she comes back after several years [in self-imposed exile]. But we have no expectations about what she'll do," said Mr Wisut.
Wisut: We have no expectations
A matter of how
Pol Maj Gen Supisal Pakdinaruenart, deputy leader of the PP, said Yingluck's return is plausible given the comments from various figures, including Justice Minister Tawee Sodsong.
Pol Col Tawee was quoted as saying that if Yingluck returned home, she would have to follow legal procedures which start with going through a court process and following the Corrections Department's rules.
However, Pol Maj Gen Supisal said it remains to be seen how the regulations will create a pathway for her to avoid spending time in jail.
He said the justice administration system long ago collapsed and the country's conservatives and elites have used all means possible to retain power and protect their own interest.
Yingluck's comeback may also help bolster Pheu Thai's support base in the northern province of Chiang Mai, but it does not threaten his party, Pol Maj Gen Supisal said.
"We could see them consolidating to fight the PP. But Pheu Thai has other strong opponents too, like Bhumjaithai in the Northeast," Pol Maj Gen Supisal said.
The PP deputy leader raised the possibility of a Pheu Thai-PP coalition when asked about Thaksin's comments that Pheu Thai aims to win 200 seats in the next general election.
If the Pheu Thai Party grabs as many as 200 seats, it will have to take the additional seats from the Bhumjaithai Party, not the PP, he noted.
Supisal: No threat to People's Party