The upcoming elections for Provincial Administration Organisation (PAO) presidents on Feb 1 do not guarantee that decentralisation will be fully achieved.
This is because national politicians still wield influence over local politics, and the central government remains reluctant to delegate power to local agencies, political analysts say.
The fact that several political heavyweights known at a national level have helped campaign for their party candidates in the PAO polls is ample proof.
They view the polls as an opportunity to build alliances with local political clans and strengthen their support base for the general election in 2027.
These figures include former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is believed to be Pheu Thai's de facto leader, and Thanathorn Juangroongruangkit, chairman of the Progressive Movement.
The Progressive Movement has links with the now-dissolved Move Forward Party and the People's Party (PP), and Thanathorn also assisted the PP's campaigns in several provinces.
Fierce competition is expected in the elections for PAO presidents and members in 47 provinces on Feb 1.
The parties -- Pheu Thai, Bhumjaithai (BJP) and the PP -- are contesting the polls to fill positions left vacant by PAO presidents who did not complete their terms.
Several PAO presidents in various provinces resigned before their terms ended on Dec 19, 2024, triggering the need for elections within 60 days. Elections for officials who complete their terms must take place within 45 days.
Unwilling to delegate power
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok's Institute, told the Bangkok Post he believes Thaksin's role in Pheu Thai's campaigns indicates his desire for the ruling party to win the national elections.
Local politicians affiliated with the party are expected to play a key role in achieving this goal.
Moreover, the Pheu Thai-led government, which controls state mechanisms, also has the backing of central government agencies that are reluctant to devolve power to local people.
"This means national politicians will continue to dominate and influence local politics," Mr Stithorn said.
Meanwhile, several candidates are also known to be affiliated with Bhumjaithai, a government coalition member.
Its leader, Anutin Charnvirakul, heads the Interior Ministry, which is responsible for local administrations, Mr Stithorn said.
"Local politics cannot shake off the influence of national politicians. Therefore, whichever party wins the most seats for PAO chiefs, it is unlikely power will be devolved to local people.
"It is unlikely any party will be willing to support decentralisation because they can still benefit from the existing centralised structure," he said.
Stithorn: Thaksin eyes general election
Distant prospect
Yuttaporn Issarachai, a political scientist at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, echoed the view that decentralisation remains a distant prospect.
"Moreover, the PP has never been in government, so its push for decentralisation efforts have yet to materialise," he said.
"Locals are often more concerned about immediate problems such as water or power shortages, so they tend to vote for candidates they are familiar with and who have helped them before, rather than basing their decisions on party policies," Mr Yuttaporn added.
Among PAO poll candidates in the 47 provinces, most are either former PAO chiefs or former deputy PAO chiefs.
"Since local politics is still dominated by national politicians, it is not surprising that the support bases of the three parties [Pheu Thai, BJP, and PP] are almost identical in both national and local elections," he said.
Yuttaporn: Prospect of decentralisation far off
Outcome predictions
The analysts also agreed that Pheu Thai is likely to win most seats in the PAO elections, particularly in the North and Northeast, which are the party's strongholds.
Meanwhile, the BJP is expected to win several seats, especially in provinces in the Central Plains Region, the East, and the South.
The remaining seats will likely be shared by independent candidates affiliated with local political clans, as well as the PP, which is expected to secure seats in Nakhon Nayok, Samut Prakan, and Phuket.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a lecturer at Burapha University's Faculty of Political Science and Law, predicted BJP would secure more than 50% of the seats, while Pheu Thai would win about 25%.
Candidates from local political clans are expected to win 20%, while the PP would secure only 5% of the seats, he said.
"The media has focused heavily on the competition between Pheu Thai and Bhumjaithai in only 10 provinces. However, there are more than 30 provinces where Pheu Thai is not fielding candidates. In these provinces, independent candidates known to be affiliated with Bhumjaithai are contesting," Mr Olarn said.
Olarn: BJP to secure over 50% of seats
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, said he believes Pheu Thai still holds an advantage over other parties in the PAO elections due to Thaksin's involvement in the campaigns and the party's control over state mechanisms.
He predicted Pheu Thai will win about 40% of the 47 PAO seats, while the BJP will secure about 30%. The remaining seats will be shared among other parties, such as the Democrats, the PP and the Chartthaipattana Party.
Thanaporn: Pheu Thai to win 40% of seats