The ruling Pheu Thai Party still has a chance to return to power after the next general election if it learns from the recent Provincial Administrative Organisation (PAO) elections and revises its strategies to adapt to changing circumstances, political observers said.
Pheu Thai and its de facto leader, Thaksin Shinawatra, appear to have lost their grip on several constituencies in the North and Northeast, regions that were once party strongholds.
The party did not perform as well as Thaksin had expected in the PAO elections on Feb 1, despite his active campaigning for Pheu Thai candidates in several provinces.
Pheu Thai candidates secured the leadership of 10 provincial administrative organisations, while candidates affiliated with the party won six. Bhumjaithai outperformed them, securing 14. The People's Party (PP) won in only one province -- Lamphun -- despite fielding candidates in 17 provinces. This outcome has led some political analysts to question whether Thaksin has lost his political influence.
In response, Thaksin acknowledged he is old now, and suggested that some people under 40 years old may not recognise his past achievements. However, he expressed confidence that Pheu Thai would perform well in the 2027 general election, predicting the party would win at least 200 House seats.
Analysts, however, pointed out that PAO elections differ significantly from national elections, making it difficult to use the PAO results as a definitive benchmark for success in the 2027 general election.
In local elections, voters tend to support candidates who have close ties to their communities, understand local needs, and can address their problems and promote local development.
In contrast, national elections are driven primarily by political ideologies and party policy platforms, observers said.
Not a bad result
Yutthaporn Issarachai, a political science lecturer at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University, told the Bangkok Post that the 10 PAO chief seats won by Pheu Thai were not a bad result for the party, considering it fielded candidates in 14 provinces.
Pheu Thai lost in some provinces for different reasons, such as in Chiang Rai, where a candidate affiliated with the Bhumjaithai Party, a government coalition member, won the seat. This was largely due to the severe flooding that hit the northernmost province late last year. With Bhumjaithai leader Anutin Charnvirakul at the helm of the Interior Ministry, the party played a key role in relief operations and post-flood recovery efforts, which may have influenced voter support.
Yuttaporn: Pheu Thai policies haven't failed
Local vs national politics
This doesn't indicate the policies rolled out by Pheu Thai ahead of the PAO elections, such as the 10,000-baht cash handout scheme, had failed. "Local politics is different from national politics," he said.
Unlike national elections, local polls do not have advance voting or inter-constituency voting, he said, adding the number of invalid ballots and no-votes was notably high.
If the number of no-votes in any province exceeds the votes received by any candidate, the Election Commission (EC) will call for a re-run, he said.
Of the 27.99 million eligible voters, 16.36 million (58.45%) exercised their electoral rights in the PAO president elections, according to the EC.
In the PAO presidents election, there were 931,290 invalid ballots (5.69% of all ballots) and 1.17 million ballots in which voters ticked the no-vote box (7.08% of all ballots).
"In national elections, voters consider party policies and stances on constitutional amendments, while in local elections, they choose candidates who can address their everyday problems," Mr Yutthaporn said.
However, he noted that Pheu Thai's populist policies alone may no longer guarantee success in the next general election, as they have in the past.
"Clear political ideologies also play a crucial role in electoral success," he said.
"Pheu Thai must learn from the PAO elections and consider how to distance itself from Thaksin.
"The party should give young-generation politicians the opportunity to demonstrate their abilities and take the spotlight," Mr Yutthaporn said.
"Such changes could improve its chances of winning the next election," he added.
Most importantly, he said, tackling economic problems remains a top priority for the Pheu Thai-led government, and failure to do so could lead to a decline in the party's popularity at the national poll.
Try harder
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok's Institute, said Thaksin will have to work harder if he wants Pheu Thai to win the next general election.
"Thaksin needs to invest more... Just showing up at campaign events for candidates was not enough, especially compared to Bhumjaithai, which has strengthened its ties with local candidates," Mr Stithorn said.
"Pheu Thai should now realise that Bhumjaithai has become stronger. Thaksin must be more generous and invest more to win people's hearts," he added.
Mr Stithorn also predicted that, based on the PAO election results, Bhumjaithai is likely to win more than 100 House seats, an increase from its current 60-70, while Pheu Thai is expected to secure about 130 seats, up from its current 112.
As for the People's Party (PP), he said it will likely retain its seats in existing constituencies in the next general election but will struggle to secure victories in new constituencies.
In the next election, he predicted that only three parties will have more than 100 MPs, while the Palang Pracharath Party and United Thai Nation Party are expected to see their House seats decline.
Mr Stithorn said he did not believe Pheu Thai would secure 200 House seats, as Thaksin had predicted, but he expected the party to win enough seats to return to power and form the next government.
Stithorn: Thaksin must work harder
Former Democrat Party MP Thepthai Senpong said the PP won only one seat in the PAO chief elections partly because it failed to consider the differences between local and national elections.
In the 2023 general election, many people voted for the now-dissolved Move Forward Party, which later rebranded as the PP, because they wanted then-party leader Pita Limjaroenrat to become prime minister, he said.
When it comes to local politics, the focus is on addressing specific needs, which vary from province to province, Mr Thepthai said, adding many PP candidates were unfamiliar to local residents.
Regarding Weeradet Phupisit, the PP candidate who won in Lamphun, he noted that Weeradet is well-known among locals as the son of a former PAO chief in the province.
However, Mr Thepthai pointed out the Lamphun Provincial Administrative Organisation is relatively small, with a budget allocation of only 300-400 million baht, compared to PAOs in major provinces such as Chon Buri, which can have a budget of up to 4 billion baht.
"The budget is limited. But locals in Lamphun now have high expectations for the new PAO chief," he said.
Thepthai: Locals don't know PP