The government's approval of casino-entertainment complexes could be a trigger for widespread opposition to the Pheu Thai-led administration.
Anti-government activists have previously held small protests over various issues, including former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra's alleged privileged treatment at Police General Hospital and the 2001 memorandum of understanding on maritime claims in the Gulf of Thailand.
Although these protests were called off following a court order, activists resumed rallying on Tuesday after reports emerged the cabinet was set to consider the Entertainment Complex Bill.
Although the cabinet ultimately delayed deliberating the bill, pending the Ministry of Finance's gathering of public feedback, protest groups have added the casino-entertainment complex project and the proposed legalisation of gambling to their list of grievances, vowing to campaign until the issue is dropped.
Facing protests
Former red-shirt leader Jatuporn Prompan said anti-government groups are opposed to the legalisation of gambling and feel compelled to step up their campaign after Prime Minister's Office Minister Chousak Sirinil insisted the bill was an urgent issue.
The bill has been linked to online gambling, which raises concerns the activity could be legalised through a decree or ministerial directive, Mr Jatuporn said. The change made regarding gamblers' minimum savings requirements has also raised alarm.
Mr Jatuporn was referring to a requirement that would require Thais to have at least 50 million baht in their savings accounts for at least six months before being allowed to enter a casino-entertainment complex.
Amid signs of wavering, Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat said the bill would require Thais who want to play at the casinos to show proof of annual income tax payments for the past three years instead.
However, the Finance Ministry later appeared to have second thoughts. Mr Julapun later confirmed the 50-million-baht requirement would be reinstated in the bill as recommended by the Council of State (CoS), the government's legal adviser.
"It is for this reason the protest groups decided to gather every Tuesday when the weekly cabinet meeting takes place... until there's clarity on the bill," said Mr Jatuporn, co-leader of the Kana Lomruam Prachachon (Melting Pot Group).
Asked if the casino issue could backfire and pressure government coalition partners to reconsider their alliance, Mr Jatuporn said it was all a matter of timing.
"Those with direct protest experience know it's all about timing ... waiting for the right moment when everything falls into place," he said.
He cited the collapse of the Yingluck Shinawatra administration as an example, saying it was triggered by a controversial amnesty bill followed by irregularities in a rice-pledging scheme.
The current administration is grappling with a wide range of problems, including a sluggish stock market and falling prices of crops.
Mr Jatuporn, a former protest leader, also said some coalition parties still pay heed to public sentiment, and Pheu Thai never included the casino-entertainment complex project in its policy until it was mentioned in Thaksin's vision for the country.
"If they want a showdown, they just need to push it into the cabinet meeting," he said.
Several observers argued that while the casino issue alone may not undermine the government's credibility, ignoring the public's voice could turn it into a major political turning point.
Jatuporn: Refers to 'Thaksin's vision'
A fair approach
Chittawan Chanagul, a researcher on gambling issues at Kasetsart University's Faculty of Economics, urged the government to heed public calls for a referendum on the casino-entertainment complex project.
She argued that while the policy has big social and economic repercussions, it was not originally included in the party's election campaigning and, most importantly, was not submitted to the Election Commission as legally required.
"They should respect the people's voices by holding a referendum. It is a fair way to decide the fate of this project," she said.
Ms Chittawan said civic groups may not agree on every issue, but a series of forums indicate they are united in their opposition to the casino-entertainment complex project. It remains to be seen if it will gain momentum.
"They are adopting a wait-and-see attitude, especially the coalition parties. If government partners go along with it and the issue gets the cabinet nod, people may take action ... at least by launching a peaceful protest," Ms Chittawan said.
She said most of the public, including supporters of the ruling Pheu Thai Party, are against the legalisation of gambling out of concern it could exacerbate the drug problem in the country.
Ms Chittawan also criticised the opposition for failing to take action when it should have led campaigning against the project.
"The people don't see themselves as siding with the government or the opposition. But the opposition's job is to take action," she said.
Chittawan: 'Hold a referendum'
Common stance
Thanakorn Khomkrit, the secretary-general of the Stop Gambling Foundation, said the foundation has no political agenda and will steer clear of protests to oust the government when they arise in relation to the scheme.
The conditions set out by protest groups are separate from the foundation's stance, including calls for a public referendum, he said.
While the process allows for public participation, the foundation is opposed to the bill and wants it dropped entirely, so its role is focused on educating the public, he said.
"We share common ground on the issue, particularly our opposition to online gambling. However, this is more of an issue-based alliance rather than a fully coordinated movement," he said.
Thanakorn: Groups banding together
Loose ends remain
Despite the minimum saving requirement being designed to close loopholes, critics of the casino-entertainment project insist it falls short of addressing concerns about the issue of online gambling that is expected to follow.
Mr Jatuporn said casinos are simply unacceptable, no matter how the bill is revised.
He shrugged off claims it would generate tourism income, saying a crime surge due to gambling would drive away visitors who come for natural attractions, arts and culture.
Ms Chittawan, meanwhile, said that with widespread corruption and lax law enforcement, casinos provide opportunities for gambling operators and state officials to serve their own interests, leading to unchecked activities such as money laundering.
She also argued the CoS' proposal that all casino revenue be returned to the state is not a safeguard against corruption because corruption can occur at the policy level, such as in tax rate regulations.
While the bill sets a maximum licensing fee of 5 billion baht, it does not specify a minimum, which means it could be as low as 10 or 100 million baht, depending on ministerial regulations.
The fee may be set low to attract investors, resulting in massive state revenue losses that should have been used to address social problems caused by gambling, she said.
Given the government's plan to establish multiple casinos across different regions, she questioned whether it is possible to limit access strictly to foreigners and a small number of wealthy Thais.
"In Vietnam, casinos were initially restricted to foreign passport holders. However, in 2017, the country began allowing local players at select venues under specific conditions. It shows that even well-intended regulations can change over time," she said.
Mr Thanakorn said that while the CoS' revisions to the bill provide clearer guidelines on eligibility criteria and revenue allocation, there is a key point the foundation wants to highlight.
He referred to a newly added provision in the bill to allow additional businesses related to facilitating casino operations.
"I understand this could allow businesses to manage and facilitate tourist visits to casinos, which is a serious concern as it opens the door to those involved in money laundering, as seen in other countries," he said.
Mr Thanakorn said the provision was added to the final version of the bill, which coincided with the announcement of cooperation between the national committee on soft power and Melco Resorts & Entertainment.
Melco Resorts & Entertainment, an operator of casinos in Macau, has opened an office in Thailand and plans to invest in integrated resorts if the government approves plans that include legalised gambling.
Stanley Ho, the late casino mogul and father of Lawrence Ho, chairman and chief executive of Melco Resorts & Entertainment, was reportedly accused in past reports of having ties to triad gangs.
