Observers have highlighted the strengths and weaknesses of both the government and the opposition ahead of the two-day censure debate against Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, which begins on Monday.
The no-confidence motion targets the prime minister, accusing her of lacking leadership and allowing her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, to influence government affairs behind the scenes.
This marks the first no-confidence motion filed by the opposition People’s Party (PP) against the Pheu Thai-led government since it came to power in September 2023.
All eyes will be on whether Ms Paetongtarn can effectively respond to the opposition’s allegations and demonstrate her ability to lead the country. The debate will also serve as a test of how well the PP — widely regarded as a reincarnation of the dissolved Move Forward Party (MFP) — fulfils its role in holding the government accountable, according to observers.
Opposition leader and PP leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut previously said the debate would focus on Pheu Thai Party dealings where family interests allegedly took precedence over national concerns.
He added the public could expect to hear a range of terms during the debate, rather than just the phrase “a family member”, as the revised motion allows the opposition to discuss other individuals connected to the prime minister’s family if necessary.
While Thaksin’s name was omitted from the censure motion, it was replaced by the term “a family member”.
Mr Natthaphong also claimed the debate would reveal in-depth information that had never been disclosed to the media. Although the information may not be sufficient to force the prime minister’s removal, it could provide grounds for lawsuits that might eventually lead to her ousting, he said.
Ms Paetongtarn said she is prepared to answer all questions in the debate, while ministers will respond to issues relevant to their respective portfolios.
Stithorn Thananithichot, director of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok’s Institute, told the Bangkok Post that several PP MPs previously belonged to the dissolved MFP, meaning they have prior experience with censure debates.
Audience’s expectations
“People expect key members of the PP to present compelling information that could shake the government,” he said.
“This will be the first time Ms Paetongtarn faces direct scrutiny from the opposition. She has not attended parliamentary sessions frequently, which may be a weakness the opposition will seek to exploit.”
However, he believes the prime minister will try to avoid direct confrontations and may delegate responses to cabinet ministers.
“The debate could become dull if the PM evades opposition questions. It will be far more engaging if she directly trades words with the opposition. A strong rebuttal from the PM could also inform and benefit the public.
“If the opposition fails to make an impact, the government will seize the debate as an opportunity to promote its achievements and policies,” Mr Stithorn said. He added he does not expect the censure debate to boost the PP’s popularity much.
“The party’s strategy is not to win over more supporters directly, but to disillusioned voters who backed other parties in the last election, making them reconsider their choices in the next one,” he said.
Despite Thaksin’s name being omitted from the motion, the opposition would likely use alternative references to target him during the debate. “Strong protests and heated exchanges between government and opposition MPs are expected. It will be up to the Parliament President to maintain order,” Mr Stithorn said.
Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, said the government’s advantage lies in its access to information that can counter opposition allegations. Additionally, ministers from coalition parties can step in to respond on the PM’s behalf.
He added Pheu Thai’s past experience as an opposition party will help it navigate the debate. If Ms Paetongtarn requires additional support, she can turn to her father, Thaksin, Pheu Thai’s alleged de facto leader.
Strength and weakness
While Thaksin is a strength for the prime minister, he could also be a weakness, “making her vulnerable due to accusations he is influencing the government from behind the scenes”, Mr Thanaporn said.
As for the PP, one of its key strengths is its ability to leverage social media effectively. It is expected to use various platforms during the debate to criticise the government and amplify its messages, he said.
With Thaksin’s name omitted from the motion, the PP is also likely to broaden the debate’s scope and target other individuals linked to the prime minister’s family, Mr Thanaporn added.
Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) leader Gen Prawit Wongsuwon could also be a key asset for the opposition, he said, adding: “No one knows more about secret deals than Gen Prawit”, but did not elaborate.
Convincing information needed
He also said the quality of information presented by the opposition will be crucial, as a lack of credible evidence could undermine its position.
“If the opposition relies solely on newspaper clippings as sources to censure the government, it will do little to enhance its credibility. If nothing new is presented beyond what has already been reported in the media, the debate could be seen as a failure,” he said.
Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University in Chon Buri, said Ms Paetongtarn’s strengths lie in the unity among coalition parties and the Pheu Thai-led government’s majority in the House.
If no allegations of corruption arise during the debate, all coalition parties are expected to back the prime minister in the confidence vote that will follow the two-day session, he said.
However, Mr Olarn echoed concerns Ms Paetongtarn’s biggest weakness is the perception that she is being controlled by her father, Thaksin. “If she faces tough questioning from the opposition, will she be able to respond effectively?” he asked.
Regarding the PP’s weaknesses, he noted the party lacks a strong lineup of standout MPs who can challenge the government. Mr Olarn also warned the censure debate could inflame tensions between supporters of the PP and Pheu Thai. “Their strong emotions are already surfacing on social media ahead of the debate,” he said.
For the two-day debate, the opposition has been allocated 28 hours to question the prime minister, while the government and cabinet have seven hours to respond.
An additional two hours have been set aside for the House Speaker and deputies, who will oversee the proceedings.