The Pheu Thai-led government's digital wallet handout scheme is expected to proceed, regardless of whether Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin is removed from office by the Constitutional Court over his decision to appoint ex-convict Pichit Chuenban as a cabinet minister, according to political observers.
The digital wallet handout, which is Pheu Thai's flagship policy to stimulate the economy, will remain intact as long as the ruling party remains in power, they said.
On Wednesday, the Constitutional Court will decide whether Mr Srettha will remain prime minister following his decision to appoint Pichit as a PM's Office Minister in the last cabinet reshuffle.
A petition seeking the prime minister's dismissal was submitted in May by a group of 40 former senators, who argued that Pichit should not have been considered for the position, having been convicted of contempt of court for attempting to bribe Supreme Court officials in 2008 while representing former PM Thaksin Shinawatra in a controversial land case.
Handout to proceed
Somjai Phagaphasvivat, an independent political and economic analyst, told the Bangkok Post that he believed even if Mr Srettha loses his job as a result of the court's ruling on Wednesday, the digital wallet programme will go ahead regardless.
"Registration has already started. The handout is expected to begin in the fourth quarter. This policy remains unchanged," he said.
He added the supplementary bill, which seeks to increase the budget for the current fiscal year by 122 billion baht to partially fund the government's digital wallet handout scheme, sailed through all three readings in the Upper House.
Assoc Prof Somjai said that if Mr Srettha loses his job, Bhumjaithai Party leader Anutin Charnvirakul may succeed him as prime minister.
"Pheu Thai still has two candidates for prime minister. But one is not in good health [Chaikasem Nitisiri], while the other [Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra] may be too young for the job," he said.
"Therefore, a person who is widely recognised among coalition parties will be chosen to succeed Mr Srettha, and that could be Mr Anutin," Assoc Prof Somjai said.
He also said he did not think Bhumjaithai would try to delay or scrap the digital handout scheme as retaliation for Pheu Thai's efforts to reclassify cannabis as a narcotic if Mr Anutin succeeds Mr Srettha as prime minister.
"I don't think Mr Anutin would want to be in conflict with anyone if he becomes prime minister," he said.
Previously, a dispute appeared to have emerged between Bhumjaithai, which advocated for the decriminalisation of cannabis, and Pheu Thai, which seeks to reverse that policy.
Later, Mr Srettha was said to have ordered a cannabis control bill to be tabled before parliament, a signal that it may now be left off the narcotic drug list. Observers say this gesture could be a move to placate Bhumjaithai, which had threatened to boycott any move to return cannabis to the narcotics list.
Somjai: Handout begins soon
Varakorn Samakoses, a prominent economist, told the Bangkok Post that even if the court rules to dismiss Mr Srettha, the push for the digital wallet handout will continue as long as the new prime minister comes from Pheu Thai.
"But things may be uncertain if the new prime minister comes from other coalition parties," Assoc Prof Varakorn said, adding it remains to be seen how the government will divert money from other budgets to finance the handout scheme.
The government previously said the 450 billion baht will come from the budgets for fiscal years 2024 and 2025. Around 160 billion baht will come from the fiscal year of 2024 -- with about 43 billion baht coming from 2024's central budget and 122 billion baht coming from 2024's additional budget.
Moreover, 152.7 billion baht of that 450 billion baht will come from 2025's annual budget, while 132.3 billion baht will come via the management of other budgets, such as the central budget and unused budgets by agencies.
On Aug 6, the supplementary bill, which seeks to increase the budget for the current fiscal year by 122 billion baht to partially fund the government's digital wallet handout scheme, sailed through all three readings in the Upper House.
Of the extra 122 billion baht, about 10 billion will come from tax and other revenue the government expects to earn, while the rest will come from borrowing, Mr Srettha previously said.
Mr Srettha defended the 122-billion-baht supplementary bill, saying the need to inject money to stimulate and strengthen the economy was too urgent for the government to wait until 2025's fiscal budget.
Varakorn: Only with a Pheu Thai PM
Fulfilling election pledge
Pheu Thai spokesman Danuporn Punnakanta told the Bangkok Post that implementation of the digital money handout scheme will not depend on whether Mr Srettha remains as prime minister.
"The digital wallet is Pheu Thai's scheme. It is among the policies the government announced in parliament. It is an election campaign pledge made by Pheu Thai [that must be fulfilled]," Mr Danuporn said.
"I believe Mr Srettha will remain PM [after the court's ruling]. But if not, Pheu Thai will continue to push for the scheme as long as the new PM comes from the party," he said.
"It is unlikely that a new PM will come from other coalition parties because Pheu Thai still has the most House seats among coalition parties. Pheu Thai also still has two prime ministerial candidates," Mr Danuporn said, referring to Ms Paetongtarn and Mr Chaikasem.
He also ruled out the possibility of a non-MP outsider being chosen to succeed Mr Srettha if the charter court rules against him.
Danuporn: New PM likely from PT
Siripong Angkhasakulkiat, a deputy Bhumjaithai leader, said the digital wallet scheme does not depend on Mr Srettha's fate. "If the court rules against Mr Srettha and the new PM comes from Pheu Thai, the scheme will go ahead regardless," he said. "As for Bhumjaithai, we have no problem with the scheme. As a coalition partner, we support it. Pheu Thai has provided assurances the handout will benefit the economy," he said.
A source from Bhumjaithai told the Bangkok Post that the handout scheme may be scrapped if Mr Srettha is removed from office by the court and his successor comes from another coalition party.
"It is also hard to push for the scheme considering potential legal risks," the source said, referring to a warning from the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) about a range of potential pitfalls tied to the scheme, from graft to legal concerns.
Siripong: BJP supports scheme
